Burnley vs Aston Villa
Burnley
#19 · Premier League
LLLLL
VS
Turf Moor, Burnley
Aston Villa
#5 · Premier League
LLLWW
★ OUR PICK
Aston Villa to Win
Strong away form and superior underlying numbers over Burnley make Aston Villa the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.63
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.58 for Aston Villa to Win. Our model calculates a 60.5% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Burnley will face Aston Villa in the Premier League at Turf Moor.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Burnley has a 19.3% probability of winning this match. Aston Villa has a 60.5% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20.2%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Aston Villa sit 5th in the table, 14 places above their opponents
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
2 — Aston Villa60.5%1.58
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.555.9%1.72
Both Teams to Score
Yes55.5%1.74
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes0-1
7.30
13.8%
1-1
7.47
13.5%
0-2
7.68
13.1%
1-2
7.71
13.1%
1-3
11.53
8.7%
0-3
11.68
8.6%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 5.26 | Draw 4.15 | Away 1.58 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.72 | Under 2.12 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.21 | Under 4.07 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.76 | Under 1.42 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.74 | No 2.01 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 2.31 | 12 1.21 | X2 1.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals92%
Over 1.5 Goals77%
Over 2.5 Goals55.9%
Over 3.5 Goals34%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 35 | 23 | 7 | 5 | 67 | 26 | 41 | 76 | WWLLW |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 69 | 32 | 37 | 71 | DWWWD |
| 3 |  Manchester United | 35 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 63 | 48 | 15 | 64 | WWWLD |
| 4 |  Liverpool | 35 | 17 | 7 | 11 | 59 | 47 | 12 | 58 | LWWWL |
| 5 | Aston Villa | 35 | 17 | 7 | 11 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 58 | LLWDW |
| 6 |  Bournemouth | 35 | 12 | 16 | 7 | 55 | 52 | 3 | 52 | WDWWD |
| 18 |  West Ham | 35 | 9 | 9 | 17 | 42 | 61 | -19 | 36 | LWDWL |
| 19 | Burnley | 35 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 20 | LLLLL |
| 20 |  Wolves | 35 | 3 | 9 | 23 | 25 | 63 | -38 | 18 | DLLLD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonBurnleyAston Villa
1.19Goals p.g.1.41
2.06Goals conceded p.g.1.27
6%Clean sheets32%
12%Win rate45%
3.25Avg goals in match2.68
Recent Results
BurnleyLAST MATCHES
01 MayLeeds3–1BurnleyPremier League
22 AprBurnley0–1Manchester CityPremier League
19 AprNottingham Forest4–1BurnleyPremier League
11 AprBurnley0–2BrightonPremier League
21 MarFulham3–1BurnleyPremier League
14 MarBurnley0–0BournemouthPremier League
2Win13%
4Draw25%
10Lost63%
LAST MATCHESAston Villa
03 MayAston Villa1–2TottenhamPremier League
30 AprNottingham Forest1–0Aston VillaUEFA Europa League
25 AprFulham1–0Aston VillaPremier League
19 AprAston Villa4–3SunderlandPremier League
16 AprAston Villa4–0BolognaUEFA Europa League
12 AprNottingham Forest1–1Aston VillaPremier League
10Win45%
3Draw14%
9Lost41%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBurnley
No reported absences
Aston Villa
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Aston Villa Win1.58 (60.5%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.72 (55.9%)
Both Teams Score1.74 (55.5%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals2.12 (44.1%)
BTTS No2.01 (44.5%)
Speculative
Burnley Win5.26 (19.3%)
Draw4.15 (20.2%)
