Home›Premier League›Liverpool vs Chelsea Predictions

Liverpool vs Chelsea

Premier LeagueRegular Season - 36
Liverpool
#4 · Premier League
LWWLW
VS
Anfield, Liverpool
Chelsea
#9 · Premier League
LWLLL
53.9%
Home Win
21%
Draw
25.1%
Away Win
★ OUR PICK
Liverpool to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Chelsea make Liverpool the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.95
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.87 (implied 53.5%) for Liverpool to Win. Our model calculates a 53.9% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.86. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Liverpool will face Chelsea in the Premier League at Anfield.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Liverpool has a 53.9% probability of winning this match. Chelsea has a 25.1% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21%.

Key factors in this prediction:

  • Liverpool have won 3 of their last 5 games
  • Liverpool average 2.0 goals per game
  • With a combined average of 3.8 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture

Match Preview

AI

Predictions

Closely matched
Match Result
1 — Liverpool53.9%1.87
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.565.5%1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes65.6%1.43
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes
1-1
7.97
12.6%
2-1
8.27
12.2%
2-2
10.86
9.3%
1-0
11.03
9.1%
2-0
11.39
8.9%
1-2
11.98
8.5%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds
MarketOption 1Option 2Option 3
1X2Home 1.87Draw 3.86Away 3.72
O/U 2.5Over 1.45Under 2.67
O/U 1.5Over 1.13Under 5.47
O/U 3.5Over 2.14Under 1.71
BTTSYes 1.43No 2.66
Double Chance1X 1.2712 1.24X2 1.92

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
94.3%
Over 1.5 Goals
82.9%
Over 2.5 Goals
65.5%
Over 3.5 Goals
44.5%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Premier League Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Arsenal
35237567264176
WWLLW
2
Manchester City
34218569323771
DWWWD
3
Manchester United
351810763481564
WWWLD
4
Liverpool
351771159471258
LWWWL
5
Aston Villa
35177114844458
LLWDW
6
Bournemouth
35121675552352
WDWWD
9
Chelsea
35139135448648
LLLLL
18
West Ham
3599174261-1936
LWDWL
19
Burnley
3548233571-3620
LLLLL
20
Wolves
3539232563-3818
DLLLD

Key Statistics

2025 Season
LiverpoolChelsea
2Goals p.g.1.8
1.25Goals conceded p.g.1.8
30%Clean sheets15%
55%Win rate40%
3.25Avg goals in match3.6

Recent Results

LiverpoolLAST MATCHES
03 MayManchester United3–2LiverpoolPremier League
25 AprLiverpool3–1Crystal PalacePremier League
19 AprEverton1–2LiverpoolPremier League
14 AprLiverpool0–2Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
11 AprLiverpool2–0FulhamPremier League
08 AprParis Saint Germain2–0LiverpoolUEFA Champions League
11Win55%
1Draw5%
8Lost40%
LAST MATCHESChelsea
04 MayChelsea1–3Nottingham ForestPremier League
26 AprChelsea1–0LeedsFA Cup
21 AprBrighton3–0ChelseaPremier League
18 AprChelsea0–1Manchester UnitedPremier League
12 AprChelsea0–3Manchester CityPremier League
04 AprChelsea7–0Port ValeFA Cup
8Win40%
2Draw10%
10Lost50%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Liverpool

No reported absences

Chelsea

No reported absences

Betting Strategy

●High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.45 (65.5%)
Both Teams Score1.43 (65.6%)
●Value Bets
Liverpool Win1.87 (53.9%)
Chelsea Win3.72 (25.1%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.67 (34.5%)
BTTS No2.66 (34.4%)
●Speculative
Draw3.86 (21%)
Liverpool vs Chelsea Predictions, Stats, H2H - 9 May 2026 | SureTipsPro