Home›Premier League›Aston Villa vs Liverpool Predictions

Aston Villa vs Liverpool

Premier LeagueRegular Season - 37
Aston Villa
#5 · Premier League
LLLWW
VS
Villa Park, Birmingham
Liverpool
#4 · Premier League
LWWLW
32.7%
Home Win
20.7%
Draw
46.5%
Away Win
★ OUR PICK
Liverpool to Win
Slight away form and superior underlying numbers over Aston Villa make Liverpool the value pick here.
Moneyline
2.05
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.96 for Liverpool to Win. Our model calculates a 46.5% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Aston Villa will face Liverpool in the Premier League at Villa Park.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Aston Villa has a 32.7% probability of winning this match. Liverpool has a 46.5% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20.7%.

Key factors in this prediction:

  • Liverpool have won 3 of their last 5 games
  • Liverpool average 2.0 goals per game

Match Preview

AI

Predictions

Closely matched
Match Result
2 — Liverpool46.5%1.96
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.560.9%1.47
Both Teams to Score
Yes62.5%1.44
Based on avg. implied odds from 10 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes
1-1
7.84
12.8%
1-2
8.04
12.5%
2-2
10.75
9.3%
0-1
10.78
9.3%
2-1
10.94
9.2%
0-2
11.62
8.7%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds
MarketOption 1Option 2Option 3
1X2Home 3.36Draw 4.03Away 1.96
O/U 2.5Over 1.47Under 2.56
O/U 1.5Over 1.13Under 5.29
O/U 3.5Over 2.23Under 1.66
BTTSYes 1.44No 2.63
Double Chance1X 1.8312 1.24X2 1.31

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
93.9%
Over 1.5 Goals
82.4%
Over 2.5 Goals
60.9%
Over 3.5 Goals
42.7%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Premier League Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Arsenal
35237567264176
WWLLW
2
Manchester City
34218569323771
DWWWD
3
Manchester United
351810763481564
WWWLD
4
Liverpool
351771159471258
LWWWL
5
Aston Villa
35177114844458
LLWDW
6
Bournemouth
35121675552352
WDWWD
18
West Ham
3599174261-1936
LWDWL
19
Burnley
3548233571-3620
LLLLL
20
Wolves
3539232563-3818
DLLLD

Key Statistics

2025 Season
Aston VillaLiverpool
1.41Goals p.g.2
1.27Goals conceded p.g.1.25
32%Clean sheets30%
45%Win rate55%
2.68Avg goals in match3.25

Recent Results

Aston VillaLAST MATCHES
03 MayAston Villa1–2TottenhamPremier League
30 AprNottingham Forest1–0Aston VillaUEFA Europa League
25 AprFulham1–0Aston VillaPremier League
19 AprAston Villa4–3SunderlandPremier League
16 AprAston Villa4–0BolognaUEFA Europa League
12 AprNottingham Forest1–1Aston VillaPremier League
10Win45%
3Draw14%
9Lost41%
LAST MATCHESLiverpool
03 MayManchester United3–2LiverpoolPremier League
25 AprLiverpool3–1Crystal PalacePremier League
19 AprEverton1–2LiverpoolPremier League
14 AprLiverpool0–2Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
11 AprLiverpool2–0FulhamPremier League
08 AprParis Saint Germain2–0LiverpoolUEFA Champions League
11Win55%
1Draw5%
8Lost40%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Aston Villa

No reported absences

Liverpool

No reported absences

Betting Strategy

●High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.47 (60.9%)
Both Teams Score1.44 (62.5%)
●Value Bets
Aston Villa Win3.36 (32.7%)
Liverpool Win1.96 (46.5%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.56 (39.1%)
BTTS No2.63 (37.5%)
●Speculative
Draw4.03 (20.7%)
Aston Villa vs Liverpool Predictions, Stats, H2H - 17 May 2026 | SureTipsPro