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Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense

Serie ARegular Season - 15
Vasco DA Gama
#13 · Serie A
DWLWW
VS
Atletico Paranaense
#5 · Serie A
DWDLW
45.5%
Home Win
23.9%
Draw
30.6%
Away Win
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.82
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.72 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 53.9% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Vasco DA Gama will face Atletico Paranaense in the Serie A.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Vasco DA Gama has a 45.5% probability of winning this match. Atletico Paranaense has a 30.6% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.9%.

Key factors in this prediction:

  • Vasco DA Gama have won 3 of their last 5 games
  • Atletico Paranaense sit 5th in the table, 8 places above their opponents

Match Preview

AI

Predictions

Closely matched
Match Result
1 — Vasco DA Gama45.5%2.01
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.553.9%1.72
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes50.8%1.86
Based on avg. implied odds from 10 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes
1-1
6.03
16.6%
1-0
6.40
15.6%
2-1
8.17
12.3%
0-0
8.32
12.1%
2-0
8.86
11.4%
0-1
9.33
10.7%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds
MarketOption 1Option 2Option 3
1X2Home 2.01Draw 3.33Away 3.74
O/U 2.5Over 2.09Under 1.72
O/U 1.5Over 1.34Under 3.11
O/U 3.5Over 3.71Under 1.25
BTTSYes 1.86No 1.85
Double Chance1X 1.2612 1.31X2 1.77

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
88.8%
Over 1.5 Goals
69.9%
Over 2.5 Goals
46.1%
Over 3.5 Goals
25.2%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Serie A Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Palmeiras
14103124111333
DWWDW
2
Flamengo
1383226121427
DWWWW
3
Fluminense
148242318526
LWWLD
4
Sao Paulo
147341913624
DWLLW
5
Atletico Paranaense
147252015523
DWLWL
6
Bahia
136431916322
DDLWL
13
Vasco DA Gama
144552021-117
DLWDL
18
Mirassol
133371519-412
WLWLL
19
Remo
142571524-911
WLLDD
20
Chapecoense-sc
131571326-138
LLLLD

Key Statistics

2026 Season
Vasco DA GamaAtletico Paranaense
1.3Goals p.g.1.67
1.13Goals conceded p.g.1.05
22%Clean sheets29%
30%Win rate48%
2.43Avg goals in match2.71

Recent Results

Vasco DA GamaLAST MATCHES
03 MayFlamengo2–2Vasco DA GamaSerie A
30 AprVasco DA Gama3–0OlimpiaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
26 AprCorinthians1–0Vasco DA GamaSerie A
22 AprPaysandu0–2Vasco DA GamaCopa Do Brasil
18 AprVasco DA Gama2–1Sao PauloSerie A
15 AprVasco DA Gama1–2A. ItalianoCONMEBOL Sudamericana
7Win30%
9Draw39%
7Lost30%
LAST MATCHESAtletico Paranaense
02 MayAtletico Paranaense0–0GremioSerie A
26 AprAtletico Paranaense3–1VitoriaSerie A
24 AprAtletico Paranaense0–0Atletico GoianienseCopa Do Brasil
19 AprPalmeiras1–0Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
12 AprAtletico Paranaense2–0Chapecoense-scSerie A
05 AprAtletico-MG2–1Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
10Win48%
4Draw19%
7Lost33%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Vasco DA Gama

No reported absences

Atletico Paranaense

No reported absences

Betting Strategy

●Value Bets
Vasco DA Gama Win2.01 (45.5%)
Atletico Paranaense Win3.74 (30.6%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.09 (46.1%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.72 (53.9%)
Both Teams Score1.86 (50.8%)
BTTS No1.85 (49.2%)
●Speculative
Draw3.33 (23.9%)
Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense Predictions, Stats, H2H - 10 May 2026 | SureTipsPro