Fluminense vs Vitoria
Fluminense
#3 · Serie A
LLWDW
VS
Vitoria
#9 · Serie A
WDLLD
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.87
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.79 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 52.6% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Fluminense will face Vitoria in the Serie A.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Fluminense has a 57.2% probability of winning this match. Vitoria has a 21.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20.9%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Fluminense57.2%1.48
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.552.6%1.79
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No52.3%1.67
Based on avg. implied odds from 11 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
5.54
18.1%
2-0
6.24
16.1%
1-1
7.29
13.8%
2-1
7.87
12.8%
0-0
9.04
11.1%
3-0
9.68
10.4%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.48 | Draw 4.03 | Away 6.87 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.99 | Under 1.79 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.31 | Under 3.27 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.47 | Under 1.27 | |
| BTTS | Yes 2.08 | No 1.67 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.10 | 12 1.22 | X2 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89.8%
Over 1.5 Goals71.4%
Over 2.5 Goals47.4%
Over 3.5 Goals26.8%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 33 | DWWDW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 27 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Fluminense | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 26 | LWWLD |
| 4 |  Sao Paulo | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 24 | DWLLW |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 23 | DWLWL |
| 6 |  Bahia | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 22 | DDLWL |
| 9 | Vitoria | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 18 | WLDWD |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 12 | WLWLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 11 | WLLDD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 8 | LLLLD |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonFluminenseVitoria
1.26Goals p.g.1.56
1Goals conceded p.g.1.32
39%Clean sheets28%
48%Win rate40%
2.26Avg goals in match2.88
Recent Results
FluminenseLAST MATCHES
03 MayInternacional2–0FluminenseSerie A
30 AprBolívar2–0FluminenseCONMEBOL Libertadores
26 AprFluminense2–1Chapecoense-scSerie A
24 AprOperario-PR0–0FluminenseCopa Do Brasil
19 AprSantos2–3FluminenseSerie A
16 AprFluminense1–2Independ. RivadaviaCONMEBOL Libertadores
11Win48%
6Draw26%
6Lost26%
LAST MATCHESVitoria
02 MayVitoria4–1CoritibaSerie A
30 AprConfiança2–2VitoriaCopa do Nordeste
26 AprAtletico Paranaense3–1VitoriaSerie A
23 AprFlamengo2–1VitoriaCopa Do Brasil
18 AprVitoria0–0CorinthiansSerie A
16 AprVitoria3–1PiauíCopa do Nordeste
10Win40%
6Draw24%
8Lost32%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFluminense
No reported absences
Vitoria
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Fluminense Win1.48 (57.2%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.99 (47.4%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.79 (52.6%)
Both Teams Score2.08 (47.7%)
BTTS No1.67 (52.3%)
Speculative
Draw4.03 (20.9%)
Vitoria Win6.87 (21.9%)
