Atletico-MG vs Botafogo
Atletico-MG
#11 · Serie A
WLLWL
VS
MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte
Botafogo
#10 · Serie A
LWDWW
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.80
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.78 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 53.1% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Atletico-MG will face Botafogo in the Serie A at MRV Arena.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Atletico-MG has a 46% probability of winning this match. Botafogo has a 30.3% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.8%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Botafogo have won 3 of their last 5 games
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Atletico-MG46%2.06
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.551.7%1.79
Both Teams to Score
Yes53.1%1.78
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 10 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.06
16.6%
1-0
6.90
14.5%
2-1
8.18
12.3%
0-0
9.03
11.1%
2-0
9.25
10.9%
0-1
9.29
10.8%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.06 | Draw 3.33 | Away 3.54 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.00 | Under 1.79 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.31 | Under 3.26 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.49 | Under 1.27 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.78 | No 1.94 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.29 | 12 1.30 | X2 1.72 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89.7%
Over 1.5 Goals71.3%
Over 2.5 Goals48.3%
Over 3.5 Goals26.8%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 33 | DWWDW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 27 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 26 | LWWLD |
| 4 |  Sao Paulo | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 24 | DWLLW |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 23 | DWLWL |
| 6 |  Bahia | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 22 | DDLWL |
| 10 | Botafogo | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 17 | LDWDW |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 17 | WLLLW |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 12 | WLWLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 11 | WLLDD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 8 | LLLLD |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonAtletico-MGBotafogo
1.39Goals p.g.1.46
1.26Goals conceded p.g.1.25
17%Clean sheets21%
39%Win rate42%
2.65Avg goals in match2.71
Recent Results
Atletico-MGLAST MATCHES
03 MayCruzeiro1–3Atletico-MGSerie A
30 AprCienciano1–0Atletico-MGCONMEBOL Sudamericana
26 AprAtletico-MG0–4FlamengoSerie A
23 AprAtletico-MG2–1CearaCopa Do Brasil
19 AprCoritiba2–0Atletico-MGSerie A
16 AprAtletico-MG2–1JuventudCONMEBOL Sudamericana
9Win39%
4Draw17%
10Lost43%
LAST MATCHESBotafogo
02 MayBotafogo1–2RemoSerie A
28 AprBotafogo3–0Independiente PetroleroCONMEBOL Sudamericana
25 AprBotafogo2–2InternacionalSerie A
21 AprBotafogo1–0Chapecoense-scCopa Do Brasil
18 AprChapecoense-sc1–4BotafogoSerie A
15 AprRacing Club2–3BotafogoCONMEBOL Sudamericana
10Win42%
5Draw21%
8Lost33%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAtletico-MG
No reported absences
Botafogo
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Atletico-MG Win2.06 (46%)
Botafogo Win3.54 (30.3%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.00 (48.3%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.79 (51.7%)
Both Teams Score1.78 (53.1%)
BTTS No1.94 (46.9%)
Speculative
Draw3.33 (23.8%)
