Bahia vs Cruzeiro
Bahia
#6 · Serie A
DDLLW
VS
Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador
Cruzeiro
#15 · Serie A
LWWDW
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.80
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.77 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 53.1% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Bahia will face Cruzeiro in the Serie A at Arena Fonte Nova.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Bahia has a 46.2% probability of winning this match. Cruzeiro has a 29.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Cruzeiro have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Bahia sit 6th in the table, 9 places above their opponents
- Cruzeiro have kept clean sheets in 43% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Bahia46.2%2.13
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.551.9%1.79
Both Teams to Score
Yes53.1%1.77
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 10 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.96
16.8%
1-0
6.97
14.4%
2-1
8.24
12.2%
0-0
9.02
11.1%
0-1
9.04
11.1%
2-0
9.63
10.5%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.13 | Draw 3.31 | Away 3.41 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.00 | Under 1.79 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.31 | Under 3.31 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.52 | Under 1.28 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.77 | No 1.95 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.31 | 12 1.31 | X2 1.69 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89.8%
Over 1.5 Goals71.6%
Over 2.5 Goals48.1%
Over 3.5 Goals26.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 33 | DWWDW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 27 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 26 | LWWLD |
| 4 |  Sao Paulo | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 24 | DWLLW |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 23 | DWLWL |
| 6 | Bahia | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 22 | DDLWL |
| 15 | Cruzeiro | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 16 | LWWWL |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 12 | WLWLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 11 | WLLDD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 8 | LLLLD |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonBahiaCruzeiro
1.6Goals p.g.1.26
1.35Goals conceded p.g.1.09
20%Clean sheets43%
45%Win rate43%
2.95Avg goals in match2.35
Recent Results
BahiaLAST MATCHES
03 MaySao Paulo2–2BahiaSerie A
25 AprBahia2–2SantosSerie A
22 AprBahia1–3RemoCopa Do Brasil
19 AprFlamengo2–0BahiaSerie A
11 AprMirassol1–2BahiaSerie A
05 AprBahia1–2PalmeirasSerie A
9Win45%
5Draw25%
5Lost25%
LAST MATCHESCruzeiro
03 MayCruzeiro1–3Atletico-MGSerie A
29 AprCruzeiro1–0Boca JuniorsCONMEBOL Libertadores
25 AprRemo0–1CruzeiroSerie A
22 AprGoias2–2CruzeiroCopa Do Brasil
18 AprCruzeiro2–0GremioSerie A
15 AprCruzeiro1–2U. CatolicaCONMEBOL Libertadores
10Win43%
8Draw35%
5Lost22%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBahia
No reported absences
Cruzeiro
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Bahia Win2.13 (46.2%)
Cruzeiro Win3.41 (29.9%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.00 (48.1%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.79 (51.9%)
Both Teams Score1.77 (53.1%)
BTTS No1.95 (46.9%)
Speculative
Draw3.31 (24%)
