Portland Timbers vs Sporting Kansas City
Portland Timbers
#13 · Major League Soccer
LWLWL
VS
Providence Park
Sporting Kansas City
#15 · Major League Soccer
DLLLL
★ OUR PICK
Portland Timbers to Win
Strong home form and superior underlying numbers over Sporting Kansas City make Portland Timbers the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.53
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.50 for Portland Timbers to Win. Our model calculates a 61.4% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Portland Timbers will face Sporting Kansas City in the Major League Soccer at Providence Park.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Portland Timbers has a 61.4% probability of winning this match. Sporting Kansas City has a 19.8% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 18.8%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Both teams average a combined 2.0 goals per game, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Portland Timbers61.4%1.50
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.562.9%1.40
Both Teams to Score
Yes60.8%1.49
Based on avg. implied odds from 9 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes2-1
7.87
12.8%
1-1
8.82
11.4%
2-0
9.19
11%
3-1
9.89
10.2%
1-0
10.33
9.7%
3-0
11.36
8.9%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.50 | Draw 4.62 | Away 5.32 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.40 | Under 2.86 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.11 | Under 6.20 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.03 | Under 1.76 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.49 | No 2.43 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.15 | 12 1.16 | X2 2.48 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals94.2%
Over 1.5 Goals84.8%
Over 2.5 Goals62.9%
Over 3.5 Goals46.5%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 7 | 19 | 28 | DWWWW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 6 | 15 | 23 | DWWWL |
| 2 |  New England Revolution | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 19 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 6 | 20 | 25 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 21 | DWDLL |
| 3 |  Inter Miami | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 19 | LDWWD |
| 13 | Portland Timbers | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 14 |  CF Montreal | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 9 | LWWLL |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 26 | -18 | 5 | DLLLL |
| 15 |  Philadelphia Union | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 6 | DLDDW |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonPortland TimbersSporting Kansas City
1.24Goals p.g.0.72
2Goals conceded p.g.1.94
6%Clean sheets17%
24%Win rate22%
3.24Avg goals in match2.67
Recent Results
Portland TimbersLAST MATCHES
02 MayReal Salt Lake2–0Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
26 AprSan Diego1–2Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
19 AprMinnesota United FC2–0Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
11 AprPortland Timbers2–1Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
05 AprVancouver Whitecaps3–2Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
22 MarPortland Timbers1–1Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
4Win24%
3Draw18%
9Lost53%
LAST MATCHESSporting Kansas City
02 MaySporting Kansas City1–1Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
26 AprChicago Fire5–0Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
18 AprVancouver Whitecaps3–0Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
15 AprColorado Springs3–0Sporting Kansas CityUS Open Cup
12 AprSporting Kansas City1–3San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
04 AprReal Salt Lake3–1Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
4Win22%
3Draw17%
11Lost61%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersPortland Timbers
No reported absences
Sporting Kansas City
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Portland Timbers Win1.50 (61.4%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.40 (62.9%)
Both Teams Score1.49 (60.8%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals2.86 (37.1%)
BTTS No2.43 (39.2%)
Speculative
Draw4.62 (18.8%)
Sporting Kansas City Win5.32 (19.8%)
