Nantes vs Toulouse
Nantes
#17 · Ligue 1
WLLDD
VS
Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes
Toulouse
#10 · Ligue 1
WDLLL
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.74
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.74 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 54.0% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Nantes will face Toulouse in the Ligue 1 at Stade de la Beaujoire.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Nantes has a 38.1% probability of winning this match. Toulouse has a 37.6% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24.3%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Nantes38.1%2.78
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.554%1.74
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes51.5%1.91
Based on avg. implied odds from 1 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.00
16.7%
0-1
7.10
14.1%
1-0
7.10
14.1%
0-0
9.50
10.5%
1-2
9.70
10.3%
2-1
9.80
10.2%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.78 | Draw 3.39 | Away 2.78 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.27 | Under 1.74 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.37 | Under 3.00 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.90 | Under 1.23 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.91 | No 1.89 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.50 | 12 1.37 | X2 1.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.2%
Over 1.5 Goals68.7%
Over 2.5 Goals46%
Over 3.5 Goals24%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 31 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 70 | 27 | 43 | 70 | DWWLW |
| 2 |  Lens | 31 | 20 | 4 | 7 | 61 | 33 | 28 | 64 | DDWLW |
| 3 |  Lyon | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 52 | 34 | 18 | 60 | WWWWD |
| 4 |  Lille | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 58 | DWDWW |
| 5 |  Rennes | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 56 | 46 | 10 | 56 | LWWWW |
| 6 |  Monaco | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 56 | 48 | 8 | 54 | WDDLW |
| 10 | Toulouse | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 41 | WDLLL |
| 16 |  Auxerre | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 28 | WLDDD |
| 17 | Nantes | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 29 | 51 | -22 | 23 | WLLDD |
| 18 |  Metz | 32 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 32 | 72 | -40 | 16 | LDLLD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonNantesToulouse
0.94Goals p.g.1.39
1.41Goals conceded p.g.1.61
29%Clean sheets22%
18%Win rate33%
2.35Avg goals in match3
Recent Results
NantesLAST MATCHES
02 MayNantes3–0MarseilleLigue 1
26 AprRennes2–1NantesLigue 1
22 AprParis Saint Germain3–0NantesLigue 1
19 AprNantes1–1Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
11 AprAuxerre0–0NantesLigue 1
05 AprMetz0–0NantesLigue 1
3Win18%
4Draw24%
10Lost59%
LAST MATCHESToulouse
03 MayStrasbourg1–2ToulouseLigue 1
25 AprToulouse2–2MonacoLigue 1
21 AprLens4–1ToulouseCoupe de France
17 AprLens3–2ToulouseLigue 1
12 AprToulouse0–4LilleLigue 1
03 AprParis Saint Germain3–1ToulouseLigue 1
6Win33%
4Draw22%
8Lost44%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNantes
No reported absences
Toulouse
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Nantes Win2.78 (38.1%)
Toulouse Win2.78 (37.6%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.27 (46%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.74 (54%)
Both Teams Score1.91 (51.5%)
BTTS No1.89 (48.5%)
Speculative
Draw3.39 (24.3%)
