Auxerre vs Nice
Auxerre
#16 · Ligue 1
WLDDD
VS
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre
Referee: F. Letexier
Nice
#15 · Ligue 1
DDWDD
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.97
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.90 (implied 52.6%) for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 53.1% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.88. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Auxerre will face Nice in the Ligue 1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Auxerre has a 42.6% probability of winning this match. Nice has a 33.4% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Nice are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Auxerre42.6%2.39
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.553.1%1.90
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes52.5%1.68
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.16
16.3%
1-0
8.06
12.5%
2-1
8.65
11.6%
0-1
8.89
11.3%
0-0
9.59
10.5%
1-2
9.84
10.3%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.39 | Draw 3.33 | Away 2.87 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.89 | Under 1.90 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.28 | Under 3.50 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.15 | Under 1.33 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.68 | No 2.09 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.40 | 12 1.30 | X2 1.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.2%
Over 1.5 Goals73.3%
Over 2.5 Goals46.9%
Over 3.5 Goals29.7%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 31 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 70 | 27 | 43 | 70 | DWWLW |
| 2 |  Lens | 31 | 20 | 4 | 7 | 61 | 33 | 28 | 64 | DDWLW |
| 3 |  Lyon | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 52 | 34 | 18 | 60 | WWWWD |
| 4 |  Lille | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 58 | DWDWW |
| 5 |  Rennes | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 56 | 46 | 10 | 56 | LWWWW |
| 6 |  Monaco | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 56 | 48 | 8 | 54 | WDDLW |
| 15 | Nice | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 | DDDDL |
| 16 | Auxerre | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 28 | WLDDD |
| 17 |  Nantes | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 29 | 51 | -22 | 23 | WLLDD |
| 18 |  Metz | 32 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 32 | 72 | -40 | 16 | LDLLD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonAuxerreNice
1Goals p.g.1.11
1.18Goals conceded p.g.1.44
29%Clean sheets28%
18%Win rate22%
2.18Avg goals in match2.56
Recent Results
AuxerreLAST MATCHES
03 MayAuxerre3–1AngersLigue 1
25 AprLyon3–2AuxerreLigue 1
19 AprMonaco2–2AuxerreLigue 1
11 AprAuxerre0–0NantesLigue 1
05 AprLe Havre1–1AuxerreLigue 1
21 MarAuxerre3–0Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
3Win18%
7Draw41%
7Lost41%
LAST MATCHESNice
02 MayNice1–1LensLigue 1
26 AprMarseille1–1NiceLigue 1
22 AprStrasbourg0–2NiceCoupe de France
18 AprLille0–0NiceLigue 1
12 AprNice1–1Le HavreLigue 1
04 AprStrasbourg3–1NiceLigue 1
4Win22%
8Draw44%
6Lost33%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAuxerre
No reported absences
Nice
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Auxerre Win2.39 (42.6%)
Nice Win2.87 (33.4%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.89 (46.9%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.90 (53.1%)
Both Teams Score1.68 (52.5%)
BTTS No2.09 (47.5%)
Speculative
Draw3.33 (24%)
