Toulouse vs Lyon
Toulouse
#10 · Ligue 1
WDLLL
VS
Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Referee: B. Dechepy
Lyon
#3 · Ligue 1
WWWWD
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.78
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.73 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 56.1% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Toulouse will face Lyon in the Ligue 1 at Stadium de Toulouse.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Toulouse has a 28.5% probability of winning this match. Lyon has a 50.1% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.5%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Lyon are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Lyon50.1%1.77
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.554.5%1.81
Both Teams to Score
Yes56.1%1.73
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.81
14.8%
0-1
7.11
14.1%
1-2
7.70
13.1%
0-2
8.24
12.2%
0-0
11.43
8.9%
1-0
11.87
8.5%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 4.22 | Draw 3.78 | Away 1.77 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.81 | Under 1.99 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.25 | Under 3.75 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.98 | Under 1.37 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.73 | No 2.02 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 2.02 | 12 1.24 | X2 1.21 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals91.4%
Over 1.5 Goals75%
Over 2.5 Goals54.5%
Over 3.5 Goals31.5%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 31 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 70 | 27 | 43 | 70 | DWWLW |
| 2 |  Lens | 31 | 20 | 4 | 7 | 61 | 33 | 28 | 64 | DDWLW |
| 3 | Lyon | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 52 | 34 | 18 | 60 | WWWWD |
| 4 |  Lille | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 58 | DWDWW |
| 5 |  Rennes | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 56 | 46 | 10 | 56 | LWWWW |
| 6 |  Monaco | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 56 | 48 | 8 | 54 | WDDLW |
| 10 | Toulouse | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 41 | WDLLL |
| 16 |  Auxerre | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 28 | WLDDD |
| 17 |  Nantes | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 29 | 51 | -22 | 23 | WLLDD |
| 18 |  Metz | 32 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 32 | 72 | -40 | 16 | LDLLD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonToulouseLyon
1.39Goals p.g.1.79
1.61Goals conceded p.g.1.21
22%Clean sheets37%
33%Win rate53%
3Avg goals in match3
Recent Results
ToulouseLAST MATCHES
03 MayStrasbourg1–2ToulouseLigue 1
25 AprToulouse2–2MonacoLigue 1
21 AprLens4–1ToulouseCoupe de France
17 AprLens3–2ToulouseLigue 1
12 AprToulouse0–4LilleLigue 1
03 AprParis Saint Germain3–1ToulouseLigue 1
6Win33%
4Draw22%
8Lost44%
LAST MATCHESLyon
03 MayLyon4–2RennesLigue 1
25 AprLyon3–2AuxerreLigue 1
19 AprParis Saint Germain1–2LyonLigue 1
12 AprLyon2–0LorientLigue 1
05 AprAngers0–0LyonLigue 1
22 MarLyon1–2MonacoLigue 1
10Win53%
5Draw26%
4Lost21%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersToulouse
No reported absences
Lyon
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Both Teams Score1.73 (56.1%)
Value Bets
Toulouse Win4.22 (28.5%)
Lyon Win1.77 (50.1%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.81 (54.5%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.99 (45.5%)
BTTS No2.02 (43.9%)
Speculative
Draw3.78 (21.5%)
