Mirassol vs Chapecoense-sc
Mirassol
#18 · Serie A
WWLDW
VS
Chapecoense-sc
#20 · Serie A
LWLLL
★ OUR PICK
Mirassol to Win
Strong home form and superior underlying numbers over Chapecoense-sc make Mirassol the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.57
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.52 for Mirassol to Win. Our model calculates a 63.9% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Mirassol will face Chapecoense-sc in the Serie A.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Mirassol has a 63.9% probability of winning this match. Chapecoense-sc has a 15% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.1%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Mirassol have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Both teams average a combined 2.0 goals per game, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Mirassol63.9%1.52
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.553.6%1.96
Both Teams to Score
No52.5%1.83
Based on avg. implied odds from 10 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
6.31
15.9%
2-0
6.82
14.8%
1-1
7.28
13.8%
2-1
7.67
13.1%
3-0
10.53
9.6%
0-0
10.64
9.5%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.52 | Draw 4.09 | Away 6.11 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.83 | Under 1.96 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.25 | Under 3.68 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.05 | Under 1.35 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.88 | No 1.83 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.12 | 12 1.22 | X2 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.7%
Over 1.5 Goals74.5%
Over 2.5 Goals46.4%
Over 3.5 Goals30.7%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 33 | DWWDW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 27 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 26 | LWWLD |
| 4 |  Sao Paulo | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 24 | DWLLW |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 23 | DWLWL |
| 6 |  Bahia | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 22 | DDLWL |
| 18 | Mirassol | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 12 | WLWLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 11 | WLLDD |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 8 | LLLLD |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonMirassolChapecoense-sc
1.09Goals p.g.0.88
1.13Goals conceded p.g.1.36
17%Clean sheets20%
26%Win rate24%
2.22Avg goals in match2.24
Recent Results
MirassolLAST MATCHES
03 MayMirassol2–1CorinthiansSerie A
29 AprMirassol2–0Always ReadyCONMEBOL Libertadores
26 AprSao Paulo1–0MirassolSerie A
23 AprRB Bragantino1–1MirassolCopa Do Brasil
19 AprInternacional1–2MirassolSerie A
15 AprLDU de Quito2–0MirassolCONMEBOL Libertadores
6Win26%
6Draw26%
10Lost43%
LAST MATCHESChapecoense-sc
03 MayChapecoense-sc1–2RB BragantinoSerie A
29 AprChapecoense-sc2–1America MineiroCopa Sul-Sudeste
26 AprFluminense2–1Chapecoense-scSerie A
21 AprBotafogo1–0Chapecoense-scCopa Do Brasil
18 AprChapecoense-sc1–4BotafogoSerie A
16 AprJuventude0–0Chapecoense-scCopa Sul-Sudeste
6Win24%
7Draw28%
11Lost44%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMirassol
No reported absences
Chapecoense-sc
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Mirassol Win1.52 (63.9%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.83 (46.4%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.96 (53.6%)
Both Teams Score1.88 (47.5%)
BTTS No1.83 (52.5%)
Speculative
Draw4.09 (21.1%)
Chapecoense-sc Win6.11 (15%)
