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Gremio vs Flamengo

Serie ARegular Season - 15
Gremio
#14 · Serie A
DDWWL
VS
Flamengo
#2 · Serie A
DDWWW
29%
Home Win
23.2%
Draw
47.8%
Away Win
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.78
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.75 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 53.6% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Gremio will face Flamengo in the Serie A.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Gremio has a 29% probability of winning this match. Flamengo has a 47.8% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.2%.

Key factors in this prediction:

  • Flamengo have won 3 of their last 5 games
  • Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
  • Flamengo sit 2nd in the table, 12 places above their opponents
  • Flamengo average 2.4 goals per game
  • Flamengo have a solid defence with 0.8 goals conceded per game

Match Preview

AI

Predictions

Closely matched
Match Result
2 — Flamengo47.8%1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.553.6%1.75
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No50.3%1.87
Based on avg. implied odds from 10 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes
1-1
6.26
16%
0-1
6.34
15.8%
1-2
7.98
12.6%
0-2
8.44
11.9%
0-0
8.53
11.8%
1-0
9.81
10.3%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds
MarketOption 1Option 2Option 3
1X2Home 4.01Draw 3.41Away 1.91
O/U 2.5Over 2.04Under 1.75
O/U 1.5Over 1.33Under 3.16
O/U 3.5Over 3.60Under 1.26
BTTSYes 1.85No 1.87
Double Chance1X 1.8512 1.29X2 1.23

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
89.1%
Over 1.5 Goals
70.3%
Over 2.5 Goals
46.4%
Over 3.5 Goals
26%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Serie A Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Palmeiras
14103124111333
DWWDW
2
Flamengo
1383226121427
DWWWW
3
Fluminense
148242318526
LWWLD
4
Sao Paulo
147341913624
DWLLW
5
Atletico Paranaense
147252015523
DWLWL
6
Bahia
136431916322
DDLWL
14
Gremio
144551516-117
DWLDD
18
Mirassol
133371519-412
WLWLL
19
Remo
142571524-911
WLLDD
20
Chapecoense-sc
131571326-138
LLLLD

Key Statistics

2026 Season
GremioFlamengo
1.09Goals p.g.2.39
0.83Goals conceded p.g.0.78
43%Clean sheets39%
35%Win rate65%
1.91Avg goals in match3.17

Recent Results

GremioLAST MATCHES
02 MayAtletico Paranaense0–0GremioSerie A
30 AprPalestino0–0GremioCONMEBOL Sudamericana
26 AprGremio1–0CoritibaSerie A
21 AprGremio2–0ConfiançaCopa Do Brasil
18 AprCruzeiro2–0GremioSerie A
14 AprGremio1–0Deportivo RiestraCONMEBOL Sudamericana
8Win35%
10Draw43%
5Lost22%
LAST MATCHESFlamengo
03 MayFlamengo2–2Vasco DA GamaSerie A
30 AprEstudiantes L.P.1–1FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
26 AprAtletico-MG0–4FlamengoSerie A
23 AprFlamengo2–1VitoriaCopa Do Brasil
19 AprFlamengo2–0BahiaSerie A
17 AprFlamengo4–1Independiente MedellinCONMEBOL Libertadores
15Win65%
4Draw17%
3Lost13%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Gremio

No reported absences

Flamengo

No reported absences

Betting Strategy

●Value Bets
Gremio Win4.01 (29%)
Flamengo Win1.91 (47.8%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.04 (46.4%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.75 (53.6%)
Both Teams Score1.85 (49.7%)
BTTS No1.87 (50.3%)
●Speculative
Draw3.41 (23.2%)
Gremio vs Flamengo Predictions, Stats, H2H - 10 May 2026 | SureTipsPro