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Corinthians vs Sao Paulo

Serie ARegular Season - 15
Corinthians
#17 · Serie A
LWWWD
VS
Neo Quimica Arena, Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo
#4 · Serie A
DDWWL
41.9%
Home Win
26%
Draw
32%
Away Win
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.63
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.57 (implied 63.7%) for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 64.3% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.56. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Corinthians will face Sao Paulo in the Serie A at Neo Quimica Arena.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Corinthians has a 41.9% probability of winning this match. Sao Paulo has a 32% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 26%.

Key factors in this prediction:

  • Corinthians have won 3 of their last 5 games
  • Sao Paulo sit 4th in the table, 13 places above their opponents
  • Corinthians boast a strong defence, conceding just 0.6 goals per game
  • Sao Paulo have a solid defence with 0.8 goals conceded per game
  • Corinthians have kept clean sheets in 57% of their matches

Match Preview

AI

Predictions

Closely matched
Match Result
1 — Corinthians41.9%2.18
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.564.3%1.57
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No57%1.74
Based on avg. implied odds from 10 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes
1-1
5.79
17.3%
1-0
5.97
16.8%
0-0
7.14
14.1%
0-1
8.01
12.6%
2-1
8.61
11.7%
2-0
9.09
11%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds
MarketOption 1Option 2Option 3
1X2Home 2.18Draw 3.08Away 3.52
O/U 2.5Over 2.36Under 1.57
O/U 1.5Over 1.44Under 2.68
O/U 3.5Over 4.51Under 1.18
BTTSYes 1.98No 1.74
Double Chance1X 1.3012 1.34X2 1.65

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
87%
Over 1.5 Goals
65%
Over 2.5 Goals
35.7%
Over 3.5 Goals
20.7%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Serie A Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Palmeiras
14103124111333
DWWDW
2
Flamengo
1383226121427
DWWWW
3
Fluminense
148242318526
LWWLD
4
Sao Paulo
147341913624
DWLLW
5
Atletico Paranaense
147252015523
DWLWL
6
Bahia
136431916322
DDLWL
17
Corinthians
143651013-315
LWDDL
18
Mirassol
133371519-412
WLWLL
19
Remo
142571524-911
WLLDD
20
Chapecoense-sc
131571326-138
LLLLD

Key Statistics

2026 Season
CorinthiansSao Paulo
1Goals p.g.1.39
0.61Goals conceded p.g.0.78
57%Clean sheets39%
43%Win rate61%
1.61Avg goals in match2.17

Recent Results

CorinthiansLAST MATCHES
03 MayMirassol2–1CorinthiansSerie A
01 MayCorinthians2–0PenarolCONMEBOL Libertadores
26 AprCorinthians1–0Vasco DA GamaSerie A
22 AprBarra0–1CorinthiansCopa Do Brasil
18 AprVitoria0–0CorinthiansSerie A
16 AprCorinthians2–0Santa FeCONMEBOL Libertadores
10Win43%
7Draw30%
6Lost26%
LAST MATCHESSao Paulo
03 MaySao Paulo2–2BahiaSerie A
29 AprMillonarios0–0Sao PauloCONMEBOL Sudamericana
26 AprSao Paulo1–0MirassolSerie A
21 AprSao Paulo1–0JuventudeCopa Do Brasil
18 AprVasco DA Gama2–1Sao PauloSerie A
14 AprSao Paulo2–0O'HigginsCONMEBOL Sudamericana
14Win61%
4Draw17%
5Lost22%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Corinthians

No reported absences

Sao Paulo

No reported absences

Betting Strategy

●High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.57 (64.3%)
BTTS No1.74 (57%)
●Value Bets
Corinthians Win2.18 (41.9%)
Draw3.08 (26%)
Sao Paulo Win3.52 (32%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.36 (35.7%)
Both Teams Score1.98 (43%)
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo Predictions, Stats, H2H - 10 May 2026 | SureTipsPro