Lens vs Paris Saint Germain
Lens
#2 · Ligue 1
DDWWW
VS
Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
Paris Saint Germain
#1 · Ligue 1
DWWWL
★ OUR PICK
Paris Saint Germain to Win
Slight away form and superior underlying numbers over Lens make Paris Saint Germain the value pick here.
Moneyline
2.12
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 2.04 for Paris Saint Germain to Win. Our model calculates a 43.0% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Lens will face Paris Saint Germain in the Ligue 1 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Lens has a 36% probability of winning this match. Paris Saint Germain has a 43% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.1%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Lens have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Lens are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Paris Saint Germain have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Lens average 2.3 goals per game
- Paris Saint Germain average 2.5 goals per game
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Paris Saint Germain43%2.04
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.566.3%1.47
Both Teams to Score
Yes67.2%1.43
Based on avg. implied odds from 6 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
7.36
13.6%
1-2
7.96
12.6%
2-1
10.25
9.8%
2-2
10.55
9.5%
0-1
10.75
9.3%
0-2
11.75
8.6%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 3.26 | Draw 3.82 | Away 2.04 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.47 | Under 2.51 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.11 | Under 5.25 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.25 | Under 1.67 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.43 | No 2.65 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.75 | 12 1.26 | X2 1.33 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals94.1%
Over 1.5 Goals82.4%
Over 2.5 Goals66.3%
Over 3.5 Goals42.7%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 31 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 70 | 27 | 43 | 70 | DWWLW |
| 2 | Lens | 31 | 20 | 4 | 7 | 61 | 33 | 28 | 64 | DDWLW |
| 3 |  Lyon | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 52 | 34 | 18 | 60 | WWWWD |
| 4 |  Lille | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 58 | DWDWW |
| 5 |  Rennes | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 56 | 46 | 10 | 56 | LWWWW |
| 6 |  Monaco | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 56 | 48 | 8 | 54 | WDDLW |
| 16 |  Auxerre | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 28 | WLDDD |
| 17 |  Nantes | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 29 | 51 | -22 | 23 | WLLDD |
| 18 |  Metz | 32 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 32 | 72 | -40 | 16 | LDLLD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonLensParis Saint Germain
2.33Goals p.g.2.52
1.44Goals conceded p.g.1.1
22%Clean sheets48%
56%Win rate71%
3.78Avg goals in match3.62
Recent Results
LensLAST MATCHES
02 MayNice1–1LensLigue 1
24 AprStade Brestois 293–3LensLigue 1
21 AprLens4–1ToulouseCoupe de France
17 AprLens3–2ToulouseLigue 1
11 AprLens2–1RouenFriendlies Clubs
04 AprLille3–0LensLigue 1
10Win56%
4Draw22%
4Lost22%
LAST MATCHESParis Saint Germain
02 MayParis Saint Germain2–2LorientLigue 1
28 AprParis Saint Germain5–4Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League
25 AprAngers0–3Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
22 AprParis Saint Germain3–0NantesLigue 1
19 AprParis Saint Germain1–2LyonLigue 1
14 AprLiverpool0–2Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
15Win71%
3Draw14%
3Lost14%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLens
No reported absences
Paris Saint Germain
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.47 (66.3%)
Both Teams Score1.43 (67.2%)
Value Bets
Lens Win3.26 (36%)
Paris Saint Germain Win2.04 (43%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.51 (33.7%)
BTTS No2.65 (32.8%)
Speculative
Draw3.82 (21.1%)
