Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen
Groningen
#10 · Eredivisie
LLDWW
VS
Euroborg, Groningen
NEC Nijmegen
#3 · Eredivisie
DDLDW
★ OUR PICK
NEC Nijmegen to Win
Slight away form and superior underlying numbers over Groningen make NEC Nijmegen the value pick here.
Moneyline
2.26
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 2.21 for NEC Nijmegen to Win. Our model calculates a 41.6% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Groningen will face NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie at Euroborg.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Groningen has a 37% probability of winning this match. NEC Nijmegen has a 41.6% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.4%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — NEC Nijmegen41.6%2.21
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.563%1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes65%1.35
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
8.03
12.5%
1-2
8.98
11.2%
2-2
9.89
10.2%
2-1
10.15
9.9%
0-1
13.00
7.8%
1-3
13.99
7.2%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.80 | Draw 3.78 | Away 2.21 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.38 | Under 2.85 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.10 | Under 6.22 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 1.99 | Under 1.80 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.35 | No 2.97 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.62 | 12 1.24 | X2 1.42 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals94.9%
Over 1.5 Goals84.9%
Over 2.5 Goals63%
Over 3.5 Goals47.5%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 32 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 92 | 43 | 49 | 78 | DWWWL |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 67 | 43 | 24 | 61 | WWDDD |
| 3 | NEC Nijmegen | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 74 | 50 | 24 | 56 | DDDWD |
| 4 |  Ajax | 32 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 61 | 39 | 22 | 55 | DWWLD |
| 5 |  Twente | 32 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 54 | 35 | 19 | 55 | DDWWW |
| 6 |  AZ Alkmaar | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 54 | 47 | 7 | 50 | DDWWL |
| 10 | Groningen | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 45 | 43 | 2 | 42 | LLDWW |
| 16 |  FC Volendam | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 33 | 52 | -19 | 31 | LWLDL |
| 17 |  NAC Breda | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 55 | -25 | 25 | LLDDL |
| 18 |  Heracles | 32 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 34 | 80 | -46 | 19 | LLLLD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonGroningenNEC Nijmegen
1.25Goals p.g.1.88
1.31Goals conceded p.g.1.47
31%Clean sheets18%
25%Win rate47%
2.56Avg goals in match3.35
Recent Results
GroningenLAST MATCHES
02 MayGroningen2–3ExcelsiorEredivisie
25 AprFeyenoord3–1GroningenEredivisie
11 AprGroningen0–0GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
04 AprTelstar0–2GroningenEredivisie
22 MarGroningen3–0AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
13 MarPEC Zwolle1–1GroningenEredivisie
4Win25%
3Draw19%
8Lost50%
LAST MATCHESNEC Nijmegen
02 MayNEC Nijmegen1–1TelstarEredivisie
25 AprTwente1–1NEC NijmegenEredivisie
19 AprAZ Alkmaar5–1NEC NijmegenKNVB Beker
12 AprNEC Nijmegen1–1FeyenoordEredivisie
04 AprExcelsior0–2NEC NijmegenEredivisie
22 MarNEC Nijmegen2–2HeerenveenEredivisie
8Win47%
6Draw35%
3Lost18%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersGroningen
No reported absences
NEC Nijmegen
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.38 (63%)
Both Teams Score1.35 (65%)
Value Bets
Groningen Win2.80 (37%)
NEC Nijmegen Win2.21 (41.6%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.85 (37%)
BTTS No2.97 (35%)
Speculative
Draw3.78 (21.4%)
