Ajax vs Utrecht
Ajax
#4 · Eredivisie
DWLWL
VS
Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
Utrecht
#8 · Eredivisie
WLWLW
★ OUR PICK
Ajax to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Utrecht make Ajax the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.71
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.64 for Ajax to Win. Our model calculates a 54.7% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Ajax will face Utrecht in the Eredivisie at Johan Cruijff Arena.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Ajax has a 54.7% probability of winning this match. Utrecht has a 25.4% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 19.9%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Utrecht have won 3 of their last 5 games
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Ajax54.7%1.64
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.562.6%1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes62.3%1.42
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes2-1
7.97
12.6%
1-1
8.67
11.6%
2-0
10.55
9.5%
3-1
10.62
9.5%
1-0
11.12
9.1%
2-2
11.18
9%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.64 | Draw 4.26 | Away 4.41 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.38 | Under 2.88 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.10 | Under 6.35 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 1.99 | Under 1.81 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.42 | No 2.66 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.20 | 12 1.20 | X2 2.18 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals94.8%
Over 1.5 Goals85.2%
Over 2.5 Goals62.6%
Over 3.5 Goals47.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 32 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 92 | 43 | 49 | 78 | DWWWL |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 67 | 43 | 24 | 61 | WWDDD |
| 3 |  NEC Nijmegen | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 74 | 50 | 24 | 56 | DDDWD |
| 4 | Ajax | 32 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 61 | 39 | 22 | 55 | DWWLD |
| 5 |  Twente | 32 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 54 | 35 | 19 | 55 | DDWWW |
| 6 |  AZ Alkmaar | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 54 | 47 | 7 | 50 | DDWWL |
| 8 | Utrecht | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 51 | 41 | 10 | 47 | WLWLW |
| 16 |  FC Volendam | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 33 | 52 | -19 | 31 | LWLDL |
| 17 |  NAC Breda | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 55 | -25 | 25 | LLDDL |
| 18 |  Heracles | 32 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 34 | 80 | -46 | 19 | LLLLD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonAjaxUtrecht
1.72Goals p.g.1.5
1.17Goals conceded p.g.1.38
28%Clean sheets31%
33%Win rate44%
2.89Avg goals in match2.88
Recent Results
AjaxLAST MATCHES
02 MayAjax2–2PSV EindhovenEredivisie
25 AprNAC Breda0–2AjaxEredivisie
16 AprAjax0–1TwenteFriendlies Clubs
11 AprHeracles0–3AjaxEredivisie
04 AprAjax1–2TwenteEredivisie
25 MarAjax2–2FC VolendamFriendlies Clubs
6Win33%
8Draw44%
4Lost22%
LAST MATCHESUtrecht
02 MayUtrecht2–0NAC BredaEredivisie
26 AprExcelsior5–0UtrechtEredivisie
11 AprUtrecht4–1TelstarEredivisie
04 AprPSV Eindhoven4–3UtrechtEredivisie
22 MarUtrecht2–0GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
15 MarTwente0–2UtrechtEredivisie
7Win44%
3Draw19%
6Lost38%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAjax
No reported absences
Utrecht
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.38 (62.6%)
Both Teams Score1.42 (62.3%)
Value Bets
Ajax Win1.64 (54.7%)
Utrecht Win4.41 (25.4%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.88 (37.4%)
BTTS No2.66 (37.7%)
Speculative
Draw4.26 (19.9%)
