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Almere City FC vs De Graafschap

EredivisieRelegation Round
Almere City FC
WWLWL
VS
Yanmar Stadion, Almere
De Graafschap
LWDWD
49%
Home Win
20.6%
Draw
30.4%
Away Win
★ OUR PICK
Almere City FC to Win
Slight home form and superior underlying numbers over De Graafschap make Almere City FC the value pick here.
Moneyline
2.05
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 2.01 for Almere City FC to Win. Our model calculates a 49.0% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Almere City FC will face De Graafschap in the Eredivisie at Yanmar Stadion.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Almere City FC has a 49% probability of winning this match. De Graafschap has a 30.4% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20.6%.

Key factors in this prediction:

  • Almere City FC have won 3 of their last 5 games
  • Almere City FC average 2.2 goals per game
  • De Graafschap average 2.2 goals per game
  • With a combined average of 4.4 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture

Match Preview

AI

Predictions

Closely matched
Match Result
1 — Almere City FC49%2.01
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.571.2%1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes71.3%1.32
Based on avg. implied odds from 7 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes
1-1
8.25
12.2%
2-1
8.58
11.8%
2-2
9.17
11%
1-2
10.33
9.9%
3-1
11.92
8.6%
3-2
13.08
7.9%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds
MarketOption 1Option 2Option 3
1X2Home 2.01Draw 3.87Away 3.14
O/U 2.5Over 1.33Under 3.12
O/U 1.5Over 1.09Under 6.21
O/U 3.5Over 1.83Under 1.92
BTTSYes 1.32No 3.18
Double Chance1X 1.3412 1.22X2 1.75

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
93.9%
Over 1.5 Goals
85%
Over 2.5 Goals
71.2%
Over 3.5 Goals
51.3%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Eredivisie Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
PSV Eindhoven
32253492434978
DWWWL
2
Feyenoord
32187767432461
WWDDD
3
NEC Nijmegen
321511674502456
DDDWD
4
Ajax
321413561392255
DWWLD
5
Twente
321413554351955
DDWWW
6
AZ Alkmaar
32148105447750
DDWWL
16
FC Volendam
3287173352-1931
LWLDL
17
NAC Breda
32510173055-2525
LLDDL
18
Heracles
3254233480-4619
LLLLD

Key Statistics

2025 Season
Almere City FCDe Graafschap
2.17Goals p.g.2.2
1.5Goals conceded p.g.1.7
25%Clean sheets20%
58%Win rate40%
3.67Avg goals in match3.9

Recent Results

Almere City FCLAST MATCHES
02 MayAlmere City FC3–0Den BoschEredivisie
29 AprDen Bosch2–3Almere City FCEredivisie
24 AprVVV Venlo3–1Almere City FCEerste Divisie
17 AprAlmere City FC4–1DordrechtEerste Divisie
12 AprWillem II2–1Almere City FCEerste Divisie
06 AprAlmere City FC1–2Den BoschEerste Divisie
7Win58%
1Draw8%
4Lost33%
LAST MATCHESDe Graafschap
24 AprEmmen1–0De GraafschapEerste Divisie
17 AprDe Graafschap3–1CambuurEerste Divisie
11 AprVVV Venlo3–3De GraafschapEerste Divisie
06 AprDe Graafschap5–0Jong AZEerste Divisie
03 AprFC Eindhoven2–2De GraafschapEerste Divisie
28 MarWillem II0–2De GraafschapEerste Divisie
4Win40%
3Draw30%
3Lost30%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

1 player

Almere City FC

No reported absences

De Graafschap1

✕R. Niemeijer
QuestionableLeg Injury

Betting Strategy

●High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.33 (71.2%)
Both Teams Score1.32 (71.3%)
●Value Bets
Almere City FC Win2.01 (49%)
De Graafschap Win3.14 (30.4%)
Under 2.5 Goals3.12 (28.8%)
BTTS No3.18 (28.7%)
●Speculative
Draw3.87 (20.6%)
Almere City FC vs De Graafschap Predictions, Stats, H2H - 6 May 2026 | SureTipsPro