Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund
Werder Bremen
#15 · Bundesliga
LDWLL
VS
Weserstadion, Bremen
Borussia Dortmund
#2 · Bundesliga
LWLLW
★ OUR PICK
Borussia Dortmund to Win
Slight away form and superior underlying numbers over Werder Bremen make Borussia Dortmund the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.91
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.91 for Borussia Dortmund to Win. Our model calculates a 49.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Werder Bremen will face Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga at Weserstadion.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Werder Bremen has a 31.2% probability of winning this match. Borussia Dortmund has a 49.3% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 19.5%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd in the table, 13 places above their opponents
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Borussia Dortmund49.3%1.91
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.566.1%1.31
Both Teams to Score
Yes64.5%1.36
Based on avg. implied odds from 1 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-2
8.70
11.5%
1-1
9.50
10.5%
2-2
11.00
9.1%
1-3
11.50
8.7%
2-1
12.00
8.3%
1-4
13.50
7.4%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 3.70 | Draw 4.51 | Away 1.91 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.31 | Under 3.30 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.05 | Under 7.80 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 1.91 | Under 2.03 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.36 | No 2.99 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.99 | 12 1.24 | X2 1.32 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals—
Over 1.5 Goals88.1%
Over 2.5 Goals66.1%
Over 3.5 Goals51.5%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 32 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 116 | 35 | 81 | 83 | DWWWW |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 32 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 65 | 32 | 33 | 67 | LWLLW |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 32 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 63 | 42 | 21 | 62 | LWWWW |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 66 | 43 | 23 | 58 | WWLWW |
| 5 |  VfB Stuttgart | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 66 | 46 | 20 | 58 | DDLWL |
| 6 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 64 | 48 | 16 | 58 | DWWDL |
| 15 | Werder Bremen | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 37 | 57 | -20 | 32 | LDWLL |
| 16 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 42 | 67 | -25 | 26 | DDWLL |
| 17 |  FC St. Pauli | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 26 | LLDLD |
| 18 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 69 | -31 | 23 | DWLWD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonWerder BremenBorussia Dortmund
1.12Goals p.g.1.94
1.71Goals conceded p.g.1.24
12%Clean sheets35%
24%Win rate59%
2.82Avg goals in match3.18
Recent Results
Werder BremenLAST MATCHES
02 MayWerder Bremen1–3FC AugsburgBundesliga
26 AprVfB Stuttgart1–1Werder BremenBundesliga
18 AprWerder Bremen3–1Hamburger SVBundesliga
12 Apr1. FC Köln3–1Werder BremenBundesliga
04 AprWerder Bremen1–2RB LeipzigBundesliga
21 MarVfL Wolfsburg0–1Werder BremenBundesliga
4Win24%
3Draw18%
10Lost59%
LAST MATCHESBorussia Dortmund
03 MayBorussia Mönchengladbach1–0Borussia DortmundBundesliga
26 AprBorussia Dortmund4–0SC FreiburgBundesliga
18 Apr1899 Hoffenheim2–1Borussia DortmundBundesliga
11 AprBorussia Dortmund0–1Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
04 AprVfB Stuttgart0–2Borussia DortmundBundesliga
21 MarBorussia Dortmund3–2Hamburger SVBundesliga
10Win59%
1Draw6%
6Lost35%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersWerder Bremen
No reported absences
Borussia Dortmund
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.31 (66.1%)
Both Teams Score1.36 (64.5%)
Value Bets
Werder Bremen Win3.70 (31.2%)
Borussia Dortmund Win1.91 (49.3%)
Under 2.5 Goals3.30 (33.9%)
BTTS No2.99 (35.5%)
Speculative
Draw4.51 (19.5%)
