VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen
VfB Stuttgart
#5 · Bundesliga
DDWLW
VS
MHPArena, Stuttgart
Bayer Leverkusen
#4 · Bundesliga
WWLLW
★ OUR PICK
VfB Stuttgart to Win
Slight home form and superior underlying numbers over Bayer Leverkusen make VfB Stuttgart the value pick here.
Moneyline
2.20
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 2.11 for VfB Stuttgart to Win. Our model calculates a 45.4% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , VfB Stuttgart will face Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga at MHPArena.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that VfB Stuttgart has a 45.4% probability of winning this match. Bayer Leverkusen has a 33.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20.7%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of their last 5 games
- VfB Stuttgart average 2.1 goals per game
- With a combined average of 4.0 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — VfB Stuttgart45.4%2.11
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.567.6%1.34
Both Teams to Score
Yes68.2%1.33
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
8.55
11.7%
2-1
9.10
11%
2-2
9.94
10.1%
1-2
10.69
9.4%
3-1
13.29
7.6%
1-0
14.08
7.2%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.11 | Draw 3.94 | Away 2.94 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.34 | Under 3.11 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.08 | Under 6.77 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 1.89 | Under 1.93 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.33 | No 3.12 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.38 | 12 1.23 | X2 1.71 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals95.2%
Over 1.5 Goals86.1%
Over 2.5 Goals67.6%
Over 3.5 Goals50.5%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 32 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 116 | 35 | 81 | 83 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 32 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 65 | 32 | 33 | 67 | LWLLW |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 32 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 63 | 42 | 21 | 62 | LWWWW |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 66 | 43 | 23 | 58 | WWLWW |
| 5 | VfB Stuttgart | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 66 | 46 | 20 | 58 | DDLWL |
| 6 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 64 | 48 | 16 | 58 | DWWDL |
| 16 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 42 | 67 | -25 | 26 | DDWLL |
| 17 |  FC St. Pauli | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 26 | LLDLD |
| 18 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 69 | -31 | 23 | DWLWD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonVfB StuttgartBayer Leverkusen
2.15Goals p.g.1.85
1.45Goals conceded p.g.1.15
25%Clean sheets30%
50%Win rate45%
3.6Avg goals in match3
Recent Results
VfB StuttgartLAST MATCHES
02 May1899 Hoffenheim3–3VfB StuttgartBundesliga
26 AprVfB Stuttgart1–1Werder BremenBundesliga
23 AprVfB Stuttgart2–1SC FreiburgDFB Pokal
19 AprBayern München4–2VfB StuttgartBundesliga
12 AprVfB Stuttgart4–0Hamburger SVBundesliga
04 AprVfB Stuttgart0–2Borussia DortmundBundesliga
10Win50%
4Draw20%
6Lost30%
LAST MATCHESBayer Leverkusen
02 MayBayer Leverkusen4–1RB LeipzigBundesliga
25 Apr1. FC Köln1–2Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
22 AprBayer Leverkusen0–2Bayern MünchenDFB Pokal
18 AprBayer Leverkusen1–2FC AugsburgBundesliga
11 AprBorussia Dortmund0–1Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
04 AprBayer Leverkusen6–3VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
9Win45%
7Draw35%
4Lost20%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersVfB Stuttgart
No reported absences
Bayer Leverkusen
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.34 (67.6%)
Both Teams Score1.33 (68.2%)
Value Bets
VfB Stuttgart Win2.11 (45.4%)
Bayer Leverkusen Win2.94 (33.9%)
Under 2.5 Goals3.11 (32.4%)
BTTS No3.12 (31.8%)
Speculative
Draw3.94 (20.7%)
