VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayern München
VfL Wolfsburg
#16 · Bundesliga
DDWLL
VS
Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg
Bayern München
#1 · Bundesliga
DLWWW
★ OUR PICK
Bayern München to Win
Solid away form and superior underlying numbers over VfL Wolfsburg make Bayern München the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.74
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.66 for Bayern München to Win. Our model calculates a 55.1% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , VfL Wolfsburg will face Bayern München in the Bundesliga at Volkswagen Arena.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that VfL Wolfsburg has a 26.7% probability of winning this match. Bayern München has a 55.1% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 18.2%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Bayern München have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Bayern München sit 1st in the table, 15 places above their opponents
- Bayern München average 3.2 goals per game
- With a combined average of 4.3 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
2 — Bayern München55.1%1.66
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.575.5%1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes70%1.31
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-2
8.88
11.3%
1-1
10.35
9.7%
1-3
10.69
9.4%
2-2
10.78
9.3%
2-3
13.11
7.7%
0-2
13.27
7.6%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 4.20 | Draw 4.44 | Away 1.66 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.26 | Under 3.67 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.06 | Under 8.03 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 1.71 | Under 2.14 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.31 | No 3.24 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 2.18 | 12 1.19 | X2 1.21 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals95.7%
Over 1.5 Goals88.2%
Over 2.5 Goals75.5%
Over 3.5 Goals55.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 32 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 116 | 35 | 81 | 83 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 32 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 65 | 32 | 33 | 67 | LWLLW |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 32 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 63 | 42 | 21 | 62 | LWWWW |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 66 | 43 | 23 | 58 | WWLWW |
| 5 |  VfB Stuttgart | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 66 | 46 | 20 | 58 | DDLWL |
| 6 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 64 | 48 | 16 | 58 | DWWDL |
| 16 | VfL Wolfsburg | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 42 | 67 | -25 | 26 | DDWLL |
| 17 |  FC St. Pauli | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 26 | LLDLD |
| 18 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 69 | -31 | 23 | DWLWD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonVfL WolfsburgBayern München
1.12Goals p.g.3.23
2.29Goals conceded p.g.1.5
6%Clean sheets23%
12%Win rate77%
3.41Avg goals in match4.73
Recent Results
VfL WolfsburgLAST MATCHES
03 MaySC Freiburg1–1VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
25 AprVfL Wolfsburg0–0Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
18 AprUnion Berlin1–2VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
11 AprVfL Wolfsburg1–2Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
04 AprBayer Leverkusen6–3VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
21 MarVfL Wolfsburg0–1Werder BremenBundesliga
2Win12%
5Draw29%
10Lost59%
LAST MATCHESBayern München
02 MayBayern München3–31. FC HeidenheimBundesliga
28 AprParis Saint Germain5–4Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League
25 AprFSV Mainz 053–4Bayern MünchenBundesliga
22 AprBayer Leverkusen0–2Bayern MünchenDFB Pokal
19 AprBayern München4–2VfB StuttgartBundesliga
15 AprBayern München4–3Real MadridUEFA Champions League
17Win77%
3Draw14%
2Lost9%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersVfL Wolfsburg
No reported absences
Bayern München
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Bayern München Win1.66 (55.1%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.26 (75.5%)
Both Teams Score1.31 (70%)
Value Bets
VfL Wolfsburg Win4.20 (26.7%)
BTTS No3.24 (30%)
Speculative
Draw4.44 (18.2%)
Under 2.5 Goals3.67 (24.5%)
