Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano
Valencia
#12 · La Liga
LWDLL
VS
Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
#11 · La Liga
WWDWL
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.73
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.68 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 54.0% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Valencia will face Rayo Vallecano in the La Liga at Estadio de Mestalla.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Valencia has a 42.9% probability of winning this match. Rayo Vallecano has a 33.8% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.3%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Rayo Vallecano have won 3 of their last 5 games
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Valencia42.9%2.16
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.550.5%1.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes54%1.68
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.27
16%
1-0
7.93
12.6%
2-1
8.36
12%
0-1
10.09
10%
0-0
10.37
9.7%
2-0
10.32
9.7%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.16 | Draw 3.46 | Away 3.21 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.85 | Under 1.96 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.26 | Under 3.67 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.04 | Under 1.35 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.68 | No 2.10 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.34 | 12 1.29 | X2 1.67 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.7%
Over 1.5 Goals74.4%
Over 2.5 Goals49.5%
Over 3.5 Goals30.8%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 34 | 29 | 1 | 4 | 89 | 31 | 58 | 88 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 34 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 70 | 31 | 39 | 77 | WDWDL |
| 3 |  Villarreal | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 64 | 39 | 25 | 68 | WWDWL |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 63 | WWLLL |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 34 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 53 | WDWDD |
| 6 |  Celta Vigo | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 47 | WLLLW |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 42 | WDWLW |
| 12 | Valencia | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 39 | LWDLL |
| 18 |  Alaves | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 36 | LWLDD |
| 19 |  Levante | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 38 | 55 | -17 | 33 | LDWWL |
| 20 |  Oviedo | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 26 | 54 | -28 | 28 | LLDWW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonValenciaRayo Vallecano
1.29Goals p.g.1.32
1.24Goals conceded p.g.1.23
29%Clean sheets32%
47%Win rate41%
2.53Avg goals in match2.55
Recent Results
ValenciaLAST MATCHES
02 MayValencia0–2Atletico MadridLa Liga
25 AprValencia2–1GironaLa Liga
21 AprMallorca1–1ValenciaLa Liga
11 AprElche1–0ValenciaLa Liga
05 AprValencia2–3Celta VigoLa Liga
21 MarSevilla0–2ValenciaLa Liga
8Win47%
1Draw6%
8Lost47%
LAST MATCHESRayo Vallecano
03 MayGetafe0–2Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
30 AprRayo Vallecano1–0StrasbourgUEFA Europa Conference League
26 AprRayo Vallecano3–3Real SociedadLa Liga
23 AprRayo Vallecano1–0EspanyolLa Liga
16 AprAEK Athens FC3–1Rayo VallecanoUEFA Europa Conference League
12 AprMallorca3–0Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
9Win41%
5Draw23%
8Lost36%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersValencia
No reported absences
Rayo Vallecano
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Valencia Win2.16 (42.9%)
Rayo Vallecano Win3.21 (33.8%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.85 (49.5%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.96 (50.5%)
Both Teams Score1.68 (54%)
BTTS No2.10 (46%)
Speculative
Draw3.46 (23.3%)
