Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen
Union St. Gilloise
#1 · Jupiler Pro League
LWDWW
VS
Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels
KV Mechelen
#5 · Jupiler Pro League
WLLLL
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.66
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.61 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 53.0% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Union St. Gilloise will face KV Mechelen in the Jupiler Pro League at Stade Joseph Marien.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Union St. Gilloise has a 65.8% probability of winning this match. KV Mechelen has a 16.1% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 18.1%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Union St. Gilloise have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Union St. Gilloise boast a strong defence, conceding just 0.6 goals per game
- Union St. Gilloise have kept clean sheets in 50% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Strong confidenceMatch Result
1 — Union St. Gilloise65.8%1.33
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.553%1.61
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No51.7%1.83
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes2-0
6.24
16.2%
1-0
6.98
14.4%
2-1
7.57
13.3%
3-0
8.19
12.3%
1-1
8.85
11.4%
3-1
9.72
10.4%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.33 | Draw 4.94 | Away 8.21 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.61 | Under 2.26 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.18 | Under 4.52 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.52 | Under 1.50 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.88 | No 1.83 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.06 | 12 1.14 | X2 3.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals92.6%
Over 1.5 Goals79.4%
Over 2.5 Goals53%
Over 3.5 Goals37.2%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Jupiler Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Standard Liege | 36 | 14 | 8 | 14 | 40 | 42 | -2 | 30 | WDLWL |
| 1 | Union St. Gilloise | 30 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 50 | 17 | 33 | 66 | LWDWW |
| 2 |  Genk | 36 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 52 | 53 | -1 | 30 | LDDWD |
| 2 |  Club Brugge KV | 30 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 59 | 36 | 23 | 63 | WWWLW |
| 3 |  St. Truiden | 30 | 18 | 3 | 9 | 47 | 35 | 12 | 57 | WWWDL |
| 3 |  KVC Westerlo | 36 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 48 | 50 | -2 | 30 | DLWLW |
| 5 | KV Mechelen | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 39 | 37 | 2 | 45 | WLLLL |
| 14 |  Cercle Brugge | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 31 | LWWWD |
| 15 |  RAAL La Louvière | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 30 | 37 | -7 | 31 | LLLLL |
| 16 |  Dender | 30 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 24 | 51 | -27 | 19 | WLLLW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonUnion St. GilloiseKV Mechelen
1.44Goals p.g.1.22
0.56Goals conceded p.g.1.72
50%Clean sheets22%
67%Win rate33%
2Avg goals in match2.94
Recent Results
Union St. GilloiseLAST MATCHES
02 MaySt. Truiden2–1Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
26 AprAnderlecht1–3Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
22 AprUnion St. Gilloise0–0GentJupiler Pro League
19 AprUnion St. Gilloise2–1Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro League
12 AprKV Mechelen0–1Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
04 AprUnion St. Gilloise1–0St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
12Win67%
5Draw28%
1Lost6%
LAST MATCHESKV Mechelen
03 MayKV Mechelen1–0GentJupiler Pro League
26 AprKV Mechelen1–4St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
22 AprClub Brugge KV6–1KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
18 AprKV Mechelen1–2AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
12 AprKV Mechelen0–1Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
06 AprGent1–1KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
6Win33%
4Draw22%
8Lost44%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersUnion St. Gilloise
No reported absences
KV Mechelen
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Union St. Gilloise Win1.33 (65.8%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.61 (53%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.26 (47%)
Both Teams Score1.88 (48.3%)
BTTS No1.83 (51.7%)
Speculative
Draw4.94 (18.1%)
KV Mechelen Win8.21 (16.1%)
