Tondela vs Moreirense
Tondela
#17 · Primeira Liga
WDLLD
VS
Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela
Moreirense
#8 · Primeira Liga
WLWDL
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.80
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.74 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 56.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Tondela will face Moreirense in the Primeira Liga at Estádio João Cardoso.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Tondela has a 43.9% probability of winning this match. Moreirense has a 32.1% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Moreirense sit 8th in the table, 9 places above their opponents
- Both teams average a combined 1.8 goals per game, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Tondela43.9%2.02
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.556.3%1.74
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No51.1%1.86
Based on avg. implied odds from 10 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.02
16.7%
1-0
6.47
15.5%
2-1
8.28
12.2%
0-0
8.71
11.5%
2-0
8.78
11.5%
0-1
9.18
11%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.02 | Draw 3.36 | Away 3.69 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.08 | Under 1.74 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.33 | Under 3.10 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.67 | Under 1.25 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.85 | No 1.86 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.27 | 12 1.29 | X2 1.76 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89.2%
Over 1.5 Goals70%
Over 2.5 Goals43.7%
Over 3.5 Goals25.5%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 64 | 15 | 49 | 85 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  Benfica | 32 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 69 | 22 | 47 | 76 | DWWWD |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 32 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 82 | 23 | 59 | 76 | WDDLW |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 60 | 32 | 28 | 57 | DLWDW |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 41 | 29 | 12 | 52 | DWDDD |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 50 | DWLDW |
| 8 | Moreirense | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 42 | WLWDL |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 56 | -27 | 26 | LLLDL |
| 17 | Tondela | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 24 | 52 | -28 | 25 | WDLLD |
| 18 |  AVS | 32 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 24 | 66 | -42 | 17 | WDDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonTondelaMoreirense
0.88Goals p.g.0.94
1.47Goals conceded p.g.1.35
24%Clean sheets24%
18%Win rate35%
2.35Avg goals in match2.29
Recent Results
TondelaLAST MATCHES
03 MayCasa Pia0–1TondelaPrimeira Liga
29 AprSporting CP2–2TondelaPrimeira Liga
25 AprTondela0–2NacionalPrimeira Liga
19 AprFC Porto2–0TondelaPrimeira Liga
13 AprTondela2–2GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
03 AprGuimaraes5–0TondelaPrimeira Liga
3Win18%
7Draw41%
7Lost41%
LAST MATCHESMoreirense
02 MayMoreirense3–2EstrelaPrimeira Liga
25 AprBenfica4–1MoreirensePrimeira Liga
20 AprMoreirense1–0EstorilPrimeira Liga
10 AprFamalicao1–1MoreirensePrimeira Liga
04 AprMoreirense0–1SC BragaPrimeira Liga
21 MarMoreirense0–1AroucaPrimeira Liga
6Win35%
3Draw18%
8Lost47%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTondela
No reported absences
Moreirense
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.74 (56.3%)
Value Bets
Tondela Win2.02 (43.9%)
Moreirense Win3.69 (32.1%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.08 (43.7%)
Both Teams Score1.85 (48.9%)
BTTS No1.86 (51.1%)
Speculative
Draw3.36 (24%)
