Santa Clara vs Nacional
Santa Clara
#13 · Primeira Liga
DWDLL
VS
Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada
Nacional
#14 · Primeira Liga
LWWLW
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.81
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.76 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 54.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Santa Clara will face Nacional in the Primeira Liga at Estádio de São Miguel.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Santa Clara has a 48.2% probability of winning this match. Nacional has a 28.1% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.8%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Nacional have won 3 of their last 5 games
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Santa Clara48.2%1.95
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.554.3%1.76
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes50.3%1.85
Based on avg. implied odds from 10 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.18
16.3%
1-0
6.34
15.9%
2-1
8.04
12.5%
2-0
8.46
12%
0-0
8.44
12%
0-1
9.78
10.3%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.95 | Draw 3.38 | Away 3.92 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.05 | Under 1.76 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.32 | Under 3.14 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.54 | Under 1.26 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.85 | No 1.88 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.24 | 12 1.29 | X2 1.81 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89%
Over 1.5 Goals70.3%
Over 2.5 Goals45.7%
Over 3.5 Goals26.3%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 64 | 15 | 49 | 85 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  Benfica | 32 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 69 | 22 | 47 | 76 | DWWWD |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 32 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 82 | 23 | 59 | 76 | WDDLW |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 60 | 32 | 28 | 57 | DLWDW |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 41 | 29 | 12 | 52 | DWDDD |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 50 | DWLDW |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 30 | 40 | -10 | 33 | DWDLL |
| 14 | Nacional | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 35 | 43 | -8 | 31 | LWWLW |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 56 | -27 | 26 | LLLDL |
| 17 |  Tondela | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 24 | 52 | -28 | 25 | WDLLD |
| 18 |  AVS | 32 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 24 | 66 | -42 | 17 | WDDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonSanta ClaraNacional
1.12Goals p.g.1.06
1.47Goals conceded p.g.1.29
24%Clean sheets29%
24%Win rate24%
2.59Avg goals in match2.35
Recent Results
Santa ClaraLAST MATCHES
02 MayArouca2–2Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
26 AprSanta Clara2–1SC BragaPrimeira Liga
18 AprCasa Pia0–0Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
11 AprSanta Clara0–2Rio AvePrimeira Liga
03 AprSporting CP4–2Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
21 MarSanta Clara1–0GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
4Win24%
5Draw29%
8Lost47%
LAST MATCHESNacional
02 MayNacional1–2AVSPrimeira Liga
25 AprTondela0–2NacionalPrimeira Liga
18 AprNacional1–0AlvercaPrimeira Liga
12 AprBenfica2–0NacionalPrimeira Liga
04 AprNacional2–0EstrelaPrimeira Liga
21 MarFamalicao1–0NacionalPrimeira Liga
4Win24%
3Draw18%
10Lost59%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSanta Clara
No reported absences
Nacional
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Santa Clara Win1.95 (48.2%)
Nacional Win3.92 (28.1%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.05 (45.7%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.76 (54.3%)
Both Teams Score1.85 (50.3%)
BTTS No1.88 (49.7%)
Speculative
Draw3.38 (23.8%)
