Tokyo Verdy vs JEF United Chiba
Tokyo Verdy
#5 · J1 League
WDLDL
1 - 0
Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo
Referee: Koichiro Fukushima, Japan
JEF United Chiba
#10 · J1 League
LLDWL
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.57
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.54 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 54.7% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Tokyo Verdy will face JEF United Chiba in the J1 League at Ajinomoto Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Tokyo Verdy has a 46.1% probability of winning this match. JEF United Chiba has a 29.3% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24.6%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Tokyo Verdy46.1%2.27
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.554.7%1.54
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes50.4%2.01
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.65
17.8%
1-0
5.90
17%
0-0
7.03
14.3%
0-1
7.16
14%
2-1
8.79
11.5%
2-0
9.38
10.7%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.27 | Draw 3.10 | Away 3.18 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.37 | Under 1.54 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.44 | Under 2.61 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 4.63 | Under 1.16 | |
| BTTS | Yes 2.01 | No 1.72 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.32 | 12 1.33 | X2 1.60 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals86.8%
Over 1.5 Goals64.4%
Over 2.5 Goals45.3%
Over 3.5 Goals20.1%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashima | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 32 | WWWLW |
| 1 |  Vissel Kobe | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 25 | WWWWL |
| 2 |  Nagoya Grampus | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 21 | WWLWL |
| 2 |  FC Tokyo | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 26 | WWLWL |
| 3 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 19 | WWWLL |
| 3 |  Machida Zelvia | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Tokyo Verdy | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 18 | WWLWL |
| 9 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 11 | LLLWW |
| 10 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 12 | LLLWL |
| 10 | JEF United Chiba | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 9 | LLLWL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonTokyo VerdyJEF United Chiba
1.12Goals p.g.1.35
1.88Goals conceded p.g.1.35
19%Clean sheets24%
25%Win rate35%
3Avg goals in match2.71
Recent Results
Tokyo VerdyLAST MATCHES
18 AprTokyo Verdy1–0JEF United ChibaJ1 League
12 AprUrawa1–1Tokyo VerdyJ1 League
04 AprJEF United Chiba3–2Tokyo VerdyJ1 League
22 MarTokyo Verdy0–0FC TokyoJ1 League
18 MarTokyo Verdy0–2Kawasaki FrontaleJ1 League
14 MarTokyo Verdy1–0UrawaJ1 League
4Win25%
3Draw19%
9Lost56%
LAST MATCHESJEF United Chiba
25 AprKawasaki Frontale2–1JEF United ChibaJ1 League
18 AprTokyo Verdy1–0JEF United ChibaJ1 League
11 AprJEF United Chiba1–1Mito HollyhockJ1 League
04 AprJEF United Chiba3–2Tokyo VerdyJ1 League
22 MarKashima2–1JEF United ChibaJ1 League
18 MarJEF United Chiba1–2FC TokyoJ1 League
6Win35%
3Draw18%
8Lost47%
Lineups
ConfirmedTokyo Verdy3-4-2-1Confirmed
5Inoue RyotaDEF
15Kaito SuzukiDEF
4Naoki HayashiDEF
45Shimon TeranumaFWD
14Yuya FukudaFWD
25Issei KumatoriyaFWD
21Yuya NagasawaGK
10Koki MoritaMID
55Taiju YoshidaMID
23Daiki FukazawaMID
16Rei HirakawaMID
Substitutes
36Riku MatsudaDEF
35Shuto TanabeDEF
11Hiroto YamamiFWD
27Ryosuke ShiraiFWD
31Hiroki MawatariGK
8Kosuke SaitoMID
7Yuan MatsuhashiMID
28Joi YamamotoMID
17Tetsuyuki InamiMID
JEF United Chiba4-4-2Confirmed
2Issei TakahashiDEF
67Masaru HidakaDEF
28Takashi KawanoDEF
3Ryota KuboniwaDEF
9Hiroto GoyaFWD
20Daichi IshikawaFWD
19Jose Aurelio SuarezGK
41Takuya YasuiMID
42Zain IssakaMID
15Takayuki MaeMID
37Makoto HimenoMID
Substitutes
39Rikuto IshioDEF
24Koji ToriumiDEF
10Carlinhos JuniorFWD
35Tomoya WakaharaGK
14Naoki TsubakiMID
5Yusuke KobayashiMID
18Naohiro SugiyamaMID
8Takumi TsukuiMID
6EduardoMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersTokyo Verdy
No reported absences
JEF United Chiba
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Tokyo Verdy Win2.27 (46.1%)
JEF United Chiba Win3.18 (29.3%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.37 (45.3%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.54 (54.7%)
Both Teams Score2.01 (50.4%)
BTTS No1.72 (49.6%)
Speculative
Draw3.10 (24.6%)
