Sporting CP vs Tondela
Sporting CP
#3 · Primeira Liga
DLWLW
VS
Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon
Tondela
#17 · Primeira Liga
LLD?L
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams Not to Score
One side looks comfortably the stronger and is likely to keep things clean — BTTS No is the value pick.
BTTS
1.75
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.68 for Both Teams Not to Score. Our model calculates a 55.0% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Sporting CP will face Tondela in the Primeira Liga at Estádio José Alvalade.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Sporting CP has a 79.5% probability of winning this match. Tondela has a 7.3% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 13.3%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Sporting CP sit 3rd in the table, 14 places above their opponents
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Strong confidenceMatch Result
1 — Sporting CP79.5%1.12
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.560.1%1.32
Both Teams to Score
No55%1.68
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 11 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes3-0
6.47
15.5%
2-0
6.53
15.4%
4-0
8.33
12.1%
1-0
9.40
10.8%
2-1
9.81
10.4%
3-1
9.86
10.3%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.12 | Draw 8.76 | Away 17.93 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.32 | Under 3.18 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.08 | Under 6.89 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 1.87 | Under 1.90 | |
| BTTS | Yes 2.07 | No 1.68 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.02 | 12 1.06 | X2 6.24 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals95.2%
Over 1.5 Goals86.4%
Over 2.5 Goals60.1%
Over 3.5 Goals50.3%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 30 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 61 | 14 | 47 | 79 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Benfica | 30 | 21 | 9 | 0 | 63 | 19 | 44 | 72 | WWDWW |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 29 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 74 | 19 | 55 | 71 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 58 | 29 | 29 | 56 | WDWWL |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 48 | DDDWW |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 46 | LDWLD |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 30 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 28 | 53 | -25 | 26 | LDLDL |
| 17 | Tondela | 29 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 48 | -27 | 21 | LDLDL |
| 18 |  AVS | 30 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 21 | 64 | -43 | 13 | DDLDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonSporting CPTondela
1.89Goals p.g.0.71
0.95Goals conceded p.g.1.36
37%Clean sheets21%
63%Win rate14%
2.84Avg goals in match2.07
Recent Results
Sporting CPLAST MATCHES
22 AprFC Porto0–0Sporting CPTaça de Portugal
19 AprSporting CP1–2BenficaPrimeira Liga
11 AprEstrela0–1Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
07 AprSporting CP0–1ArsenalUEFA Champions League
03 AprSporting CP4–2Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
22 MarAlverca1–4Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
12Win63%
3Draw16%
3Lost16%
LAST MATCHESTondela
19 AprFC Porto2–0TondelaPrimeira Liga
03 AprGuimaraes5–0TondelaPrimeira Liga
21 MarTondela0–0AVSPrimeira Liga
15 MarSporting CP–TondelaPrimeira Liga
09 MarTondela0–1Rio AvePrimeira Liga
01 MarTondela2–2Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
2Win14%
5Draw36%
6Lost43%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSporting CP
No reported absences
Tondela
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Sporting CP Win1.12 (79.5%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.32 (60.1%)
BTTS No1.68 (55%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals3.18 (39.9%)
Both Teams Score2.07 (45%)
Speculative
Draw8.76 (13.3%)
Tondela Win17.93 (7.3%)
