Leeds vs Burnley
Leeds
#15 · Premier League
WDDDW
VS
Elland Road, Leeds
Burnley
#19 · Premier League
LDLLD
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.75
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.68 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 54.7% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Leeds will face Burnley in the Premier League at Elland Road.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Leeds has a 67% probability of winning this match. Burnley has a 13.8% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 19.2%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Leeds are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Strong confidenceMatch Result
1 — Leeds67%1.43
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.554.7%1.68
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes52.3%1.87
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes2-0
6.79
14.8%
1-0
7.03
14.3%
2-1
7.75
13%
1-1
8.38
12%
3-0
9.39
10.7%
3-1
10.85
9.3%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.43 | Draw 4.56 | Away 7.10 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.68 | Under 2.16 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.20 | Under 4.21 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.68 | Under 1.44 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.87 | No 1.88 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.09 | 12 1.18 | X2 2.78 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals92.2%
Over 1.5 Goals77.8%
Over 2.5 Goals54.7%
Over 3.5 Goals34.9%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 66 | 29 | 37 | 70 | WWWDD |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 63 | 26 | 37 | 70 | LLWWW |
| 3 |  Manchester United | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 58 | 45 | 13 | 58 | WLDWL |
| 4 |  Aston Villa | 33 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 47 | 41 | 6 | 58 | WDWLL |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 54 | 43 | 11 | 55 | WWLDL |
| 6 |  Brighton | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 50 | WDWWW |
| 15 | Leeds | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 40 | DWWDD |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 42 | 53 | -11 | 31 | DLLDL |
| 19 | Burnley | 34 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 34 | 68 | -34 | 20 | LLLLD |
| 20 |  Wolves | 33 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 24 | 61 | -37 | 17 | LLDWW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonLeedsBurnley
1.21Goals p.g.1.42
1Goals conceded p.g.1.92
36%Clean sheets8%
29%Win rate17%
2.21Avg goals in match3.33
Recent Results
LeedsLAST MATCHES
18 AprLeeds3–0WolvesPremier League
05 AprWest Ham2–2LeedsFA Cup
21 MarLeeds0–0BrentfordPremier League
15 MarCrystal Palace0–0LeedsPremier League
08 MarLeeds3–0NorwichFA Cup
03 MarLeeds0–1SunderlandPremier League
4Win29%
7Draw50%
3Lost21%
LAST MATCHESBurnley
21 MarFulham3–1BurnleyPremier League
14 MarBurnley0–0BournemouthPremier League
03 MarEverton2–0BurnleyPremier League
28 FebBurnley3–4BrentfordPremier League
21 FebChelsea1–1BurnleyPremier League
14 FebBurnley1–2Mansfield TownFA Cup
2Win17%
4Draw33%
6Lost50%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLeeds
No reported absences
Burnley
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Leeds Win1.43 (67%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.68 (54.7%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.16 (45.3%)
Both Teams Score1.87 (52.3%)
BTTS No1.88 (47.7%)
Speculative
Draw4.56 (19.2%)
Burnley Win7.10 (13.8%)
