Tokyo Verdy vs Kashima
Tokyo Verdy
#5 · J1 League
WDLDL
VS
Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo
Kashima
#1 · J1 League
WWWDW
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.60
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.58 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 55.8% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Tokyo Verdy will face Kashima in the J1 League at Ajinomoto Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Tokyo Verdy has a 26.8% probability of winning this match. Kashima has a 49.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.3%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Kashima are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
- Kashima have a solid defence with 0.6 goals conceded per game
- Kashima have kept clean sheets in 59% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Kashima49.9%1.81
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.555.8%1.58
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No54%1.67
Based on avg. implied odds from 11 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes0-1
5.20
19.3%
1-1
6.10
16.5%
0-2
7.16
14%
0-0
7.22
13.9%
1-2
7.94
12.7%
1-0
9.16
11%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 4.46 | Draw 3.30 | Away 1.81 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.30 | Under 1.58 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.42 | Under 2.67 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 4.28 | Under 1.19 | |
| BTTS | Yes 2.07 | No 1.67 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.95 | 12 1.28 | X2 1.18 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals87.1%
Over 1.5 Goals65.3%
Over 2.5 Goals44.2%
Over 3.5 Goals21.7%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashima | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 32 | WWWLW |
| 1 |  Vissel Kobe | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 25 | WWWWL |
| 2 |  Nagoya Grampus | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 21 | WWLWL |
| 2 |  FC Tokyo | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 26 | WWLWL |
| 3 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 19 | WWWLL |
| 3 |  Machida Zelvia | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Tokyo Verdy | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 18 | WWLWL |
| 9 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 11 | LLLWW |
| 10 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 12 | LLLWL |
| 10 |  JEF United Chiba | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 9 | LLLWL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonTokyo VerdyKashima
1.12Goals p.g.1.71
1.88Goals conceded p.g.0.59
19%Clean sheets59%
25%Win rate82%
3Avg goals in match2.29
Recent Results
Tokyo VerdyLAST MATCHES
18 AprTokyo Verdy1–0JEF United ChibaJ1 League
12 AprUrawa1–1Tokyo VerdyJ1 League
04 AprJEF United Chiba3–2Tokyo VerdyJ1 League
22 MarTokyo Verdy0–0FC TokyoJ1 League
18 MarTokyo Verdy0–2Kawasaki FrontaleJ1 League
14 MarTokyo Verdy1–0UrawaJ1 League
4Win25%
3Draw19%
9Lost56%
LAST MATCHESKashima
24 AprKashiwa Reysol0–1KashimaJ1 League
18 AprKashima1–0UrawaJ1 League
12 AprKawasaki Frontale0–2KashimaJ1 League
04 AprMito Hollyhock1–1KashimaJ1 League
22 MarKashima2–1JEF United ChibaJ1 League
18 MarMachida Zelvia0–3KashimaJ1 League
14Win82%
3Draw18%
0Lost0%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTokyo Verdy
No reported absences
Kashima
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.58 (55.8%)
Value Bets
Tokyo Verdy Win4.46 (26.8%)
Kashima Win1.81 (49.9%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.30 (44.2%)
Both Teams Score2.07 (46%)
BTTS No1.67 (54%)
Speculative
Draw3.30 (23.3%)
