Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki
Shimizu S-pulse
#7 · J1 League
LDWLW
VS
IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka (20,339)
V-varen Nagasaki
#10 · J1 League
DLLLW
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.83
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.79 (implied 55.8%) for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 56.2% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.78. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Shimizu S-pulse will face V-varen Nagasaki in the J1 League at IAI Stadium Nihondaira.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Shimizu S-pulse has a 46.6% probability of winning this match. V-varen Nagasaki has a 28.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24.5%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Shimizu S-pulse46.6%2.26
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.556.2%1.79
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No50.3%1.98
Based on avg. implied odds from 9 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.01
16.7%
1-0
7.31
13.7%
2-1
8.49
11.9%
0-1
8.59
11.7%
0-0
8.66
11.6%
1-2
10.00
10.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.26 | Draw 3.25 | Away 3.05 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.97 | Under 1.79 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.29 | Under 3.24 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.37 | Under 1.27 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.74 | No 1.98 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.34 | 12 1.31 | X2 1.59 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89%
Over 1.5 Goals71.4%
Over 2.5 Goals43.8%
Over 3.5 Goals27.5%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashima | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 32 | WWWLW |
| 1 |  Vissel Kobe | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 25 | WWWWL |
| 2 |  Nagoya Grampus | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 21 | WWLWL |
| 2 |  FC Tokyo | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 26 | WWLWL |
| 3 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 19 | WWWLL |
| 3 |  Machida Zelvia | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 7 | Shimizu S-pulse | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 17 | LLWLW |
| 9 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 11 | LLLWW |
| 10 | V-varen Nagasaki | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 12 | LLLWL |
| 10 |  JEF United Chiba | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 9 | LLLWL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonShimizu S-pulseV-varen Nagasaki
1.06Goals p.g.1.18
0.94Goals conceded p.g.1.24
24%Clean sheets29%
29%Win rate41%
2Avg goals in match2.41
Recent Results
Shimizu S-pulseLAST MATCHES
25 AprShimizu S-pulse0–2Nagoya GrampusJ1 League
11 AprSanfrecce Hiroshima1–1Shimizu S-pulseJ1 League
05 AprV-varen Nagasaki0–3Shimizu S-pulseJ1 League
01 AprVissel Kobe2–0Shimizu S-pulseJ1 League
22 MarShimizu S-pulse3–1Sanfrecce HiroshimaJ1 League
18 MarAvispa Fukuoka1–1Shimizu S-pulseJ1 League
5Win29%
6Draw35%
5Lost29%
LAST MATCHESV-varen Nagasaki
25 AprV-varen Nagasaki1–1Gamba OsakaJ1 League
18 AprSanfrecce Hiroshima2–0V-varen NagasakiJ1 League
11 AprAvispa Fukuoka1–0V-varen NagasakiJ1 League
05 AprV-varen Nagasaki0–3Shimizu S-pulseJ1 League
21 MarFagiano Okayama0–1V-varen NagasakiJ1 League
18 MarV-varen Nagasaki1–2Kyoto SangaJ1 League
7Win41%
2Draw12%
8Lost47%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersShimizu S-pulse
No reported absences
V-varen Nagasaki
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.79 (56.2%)
Value Bets
Shimizu S-pulse Win2.26 (46.6%)
V-varen Nagasaki Win3.05 (28.9%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.97 (43.8%)
Both Teams Score1.74 (49.7%)
BTTS No1.98 (50.3%)
Speculative
Draw3.25 (24.5%)
