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Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 13
Nagoya Grampus
#2 · J1 League
WDLWD
VS
Toyota Stadium, Toyota City
Fagiano Okayama
#8 · J1 League
WDLLL
50.4%
Home Win
24%
Draw
25.6%
Away Win
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.70
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.68 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 53.5% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Nagoya Grampus will face Fagiano Okayama in the J1 League at Toyota Stadium.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Nagoya Grampus has a 50.4% probability of winning this match. Fagiano Okayama has a 25.6% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24%.

Match Preview

AI

Predictions

Closely matched
Match Result
1 — Nagoya Grampus50.4%1.98
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.553.5%1.68
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes51.1%1.88
Based on avg. implied odds from 9 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes
1-1
6.04
16.6%
1-0
6.12
16.4%
2-1
8.08
12.5%
0-0
8.15
12.3%
2-0
8.57
11.7%
0-1
9.13
11%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds
MarketOption 1Option 2Option 3
1X2Home 1.98Draw 3.25Away 3.81
O/U 2.5Over 2.13Under 1.68
O/U 1.5Over 1.36Under 2.92
O/U 3.5Over 3.81Under 1.23
BTTSYes 1.88No 1.82
Double Chance1X 1.2512 1.31X2 1.78

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
88.5%
Over 1.5 Goals
68.3%
Over 2.5 Goals
46.5%
Over 3.5 Goals
24.4%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

J1 League Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Kashima
1210022071332
WWWLW
1
Vissel Kobe
1180323121125
WWWWL
2
Nagoya Grampus
127052217521
WWLWL
2
FC Tokyo
1290324121226
WWLWL
3
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
127051915419
WWWLL
3
Machida Zelvia
118031716122
WWLWW
8
Fagiano Okayama
124081523-815
WLLLL
9
Kashiwa Reysol
124081517-211
LLLWW
10
V-varen Nagasaki
114071017-712
LLLWL
10
JEF United Chiba
1220101121-109
LLLWL

Key Statistics

2026 Season
Nagoya GrampusFagiano Okayama
1.41Goals p.g.1.06
1.35Goals conceded p.g.1.53
29%Clean sheets12%
35%Win rate24%
2.76Avg goals in match2.59

Recent Results

Nagoya GrampusLAST MATCHES
25 AprShimizu S-pulse0–2Nagoya GrampusJ1 League
19 AprNagoya Grampus2–2Avispa FukuokaJ1 League
11 AprVissel Kobe3–2Nagoya GrampusJ1 League
04 AprNagoya Grampus3–0Cerezo OsakaJ1 League
22 MarKyoto Sanga1–1Nagoya GrampusJ1 League
18 MarNagoya Grampus2–1Sanfrecce HiroshimaJ1 League
6Win35%
5Draw29%
6Lost35%
LAST MATCHESFagiano Okayama
25 AprFagiano Okayama2–0Avispa FukuokaJ1 League
19 AprGamba Osaka2–2Fagiano OkayamaJ1 League
11 AprKyoto Sanga5–1Fagiano OkayamaJ1 League
05 AprFagiano Okayama1–4Vissel KobeJ1 League
21 MarFagiano Okayama0–1V-varen NagasakiJ1 League
18 MarCerezo Osaka1–2Fagiano OkayamaJ1 League
4Win24%
6Draw35%
7Lost41%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Nagoya Grampus

No reported absences

Fagiano Okayama

No reported absences

Betting Strategy

●Value Bets
Nagoya Grampus Win1.98 (50.4%)
Fagiano Okayama Win3.81 (25.6%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.13 (46.5%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.68 (53.5%)
Both Teams Score1.88 (51.1%)
BTTS No1.82 (48.9%)
●Speculative
Draw3.25 (24%)
Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama Predictions, Stats, H2H - 29 Apr 2026 | SureTipsPro