Shimizu S-pulse vs Nagoya Grampus
Shimizu S-pulse
#7 · J1 League
LDWLW
0 - 2
IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka
Nagoya Grampus
#2 · J1 League
WDLWD
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.87
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.81 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 54.2% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Shimizu S-pulse will face Nagoya Grampus in the J1 League at IAI Stadium Nihondaira.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Shimizu S-pulse has a 37.7% probability of winning this match. Nagoya Grampus has a 37.8% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24.5%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Nagoya Grampus37.8%2.48
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.554.2%1.81
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes51.6%1.72
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.79
17.4%
0-1
7.64
13.2%
1-0
8.26
12.2%
0-0
8.85
11.4%
1-2
8.86
11.4%
2-1
9.33
10.8%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.76 | Draw 3.21 | Away 2.48 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.96 | Under 1.81 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.29 | Under 3.30 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.36 | Under 1.29 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.72 | No 2.00 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.50 | 12 1.31 | X2 1.41 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89.7%
Over 1.5 Goals71.8%
Over 2.5 Goals45.8%
Over 3.5 Goals27.7%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashima | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 32 | WWWLW |
| 1 |  Vissel Kobe | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 25 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Nagoya Grampus | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 21 | WWLWL |
| 2 |  FC Tokyo | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 26 | WWLWL |
| 3 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 19 | WWWLL |
| 3 |  Machida Zelvia | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 7 | Shimizu S-pulse | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 17 | LLWLW |
| 9 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 11 | LLLWW |
| 10 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 12 | LLLWL |
| 10 |  JEF United Chiba | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 9 | LLLWL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonShimizu S-pulseNagoya Grampus
1.06Goals p.g.1.41
0.94Goals conceded p.g.1.35
24%Clean sheets29%
29%Win rate35%
2Avg goals in match2.76
Recent Results
Shimizu S-pulseLAST MATCHES
25 AprShimizu S-pulse0–2Nagoya GrampusJ1 League
11 AprSanfrecce Hiroshima1–1Shimizu S-pulseJ1 League
05 AprV-varen Nagasaki0–3Shimizu S-pulseJ1 League
01 AprVissel Kobe2–0Shimizu S-pulseJ1 League
22 MarShimizu S-pulse3–1Sanfrecce HiroshimaJ1 League
18 MarAvispa Fukuoka1–1Shimizu S-pulseJ1 League
5Win29%
6Draw35%
5Lost29%
LAST MATCHESNagoya Grampus
25 AprShimizu S-pulse0–2Nagoya GrampusJ1 League
19 AprNagoya Grampus2–2Avispa FukuokaJ1 League
11 AprVissel Kobe3–2Nagoya GrampusJ1 League
04 AprNagoya Grampus3–0Cerezo OsakaJ1 League
22 MarKyoto Sanga1–1Nagoya GrampusJ1 League
18 MarNagoya Grampus2–1Sanfrecce HiroshimaJ1 League
6Win35%
5Draw29%
6Lost35%
Lineups
ConfirmedShimizu S-pulse3-4-2-1Confirmed
14Seung-wook ParkDEF
25Mateus BrunettiDEF
51Jelani Reshaun SumiyoshiDEF
50Alfredo StephensFWD
9Se-hun OhFWD
47Yudai ShimamotoFWD
16Togo UmedaGK
5Kengo KitazumeMID
97Rinsei OhataMID
6Zento UnoMID
10Matheus BuenoMID
Substitutes
4Sodai HasukawaDEF
39Haruto HidakaDEF
28Yutaka YoshidaDEF
23Kanta ChibaFWD
1Yuya OkiGK
17Masaki YumibaMID
11Hikaru NakaharaMID
81Kazuki KozukaMID
33Yuji DoiMID
Nagoya Grampus3-4-2-1Confirmed
70Teruki HaraDEF
31Tomoki TakamineDEF
13Haruya FujiiDEF
22Yudai KimuraFWD
7Ryuji IzumiFWD
11Yuya YamagishiFWD
1Daniel SchmidtGK
14Tsukasa MorishimaMID
15Sho InagakiMID
9Yuya AsanoMID
27Katsuhiro NakayamaMID
Substitutes
44Soichiro MoriDEF
2Yuki NogamiDEF
20Kennedy MikuniDEF
30Shungo SugiuraFWD
35Alexandre PisanoGK
19Hidemasa KodaMID
41Masahito OnoMID
33Taichi KikuchiMID
17Takuya UchidaMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersShimizu S-pulse
No reported absences
Nagoya Grampus
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Shimizu S-pulse Win2.76 (37.7%)
Nagoya Grampus Win2.48 (37.8%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.96 (45.8%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.81 (54.2%)
Both Teams Score1.72 (51.6%)
BTTS No2.00 (48.4%)
Speculative
Draw3.21 (24.5%)
