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SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig

BundesligaRegular Season - 34
SC Freiburg
#7 · Bundesliga
DLLLW
VS
Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg
RB Leipzig
#3 · Bundesliga
LWWWW
33.3%
Home Win
20.4%
Draw
46.3%
Away Win
★ OUR PICK
RB Leipzig to Win
Slight away form and superior underlying numbers over SC Freiburg make RB Leipzig the value pick here.
Moneyline
2.09
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 2.09 for RB Leipzig to Win. Our model calculates a 46.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , SC Freiburg will face RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga at Europa-Park Stadion.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that SC Freiburg has a 33.3% probability of winning this match. RB Leipzig has a 46.3% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20.4%.

Key factors in this prediction:

  • RB Leipzig are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches

Match Preview

AI

Predictions

Closely matched
Match Result
2 — RB Leipzig46.3%2.09
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.563.3%1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes63.6%1.41
Based on avg. implied odds from 1 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes
1-2
8.60
11.6%
1-1
8.60
11.6%
2-1
11.00
9.1%
2-2
11.00
9.1%
1-3
12.50
8%
0-1
13.00
7.7%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds
MarketOption 1Option 2Option 3
1X2Home 3.28Draw 4.30Away 2.09
O/U 2.5Over 1.38Under 2.90
O/U 1.5Over 1.09Under 6.70
O/U 3.5Over 2.08Under 1.87
BTTSYes 1.41No 2.80
Double Chance1X 1.8312 1.26X2 1.39

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
—
Over 1.5 Goals
86%
Over 2.5 Goals
63.3%
Over 3.5 Goals
47.3%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Bundesliga Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Bayern München
322651116358183
DWWWW
2
Borussia Dortmund
32207565323367
LWLLW
3
RB Leipzig
32195863422162
LWWWW
4
Bayer Leverkusen
32177866432358
WWLWW
5
VfB Stuttgart
32177866462058
DDLWL
6
1899 Hoffenheim
32177864481658
DWWDL
7
SC Freiburg
32128124553-844
DLWWL
16
VfL Wolfsburg
3268184267-2526
DDWLL
17
FC St. Pauli
3268182755-2826
LLDLD
18
1. FC Heidenheim
3258193869-3123
DWLWD

Key Statistics

2025 Season
SC FreiburgRB Leipzig
1.3Goals p.g.1.82
1.3Goals conceded p.g.1.47
22%Clean sheets18%
43%Win rate53%
2.61Avg goals in match3.29

Recent Results

SC FreiburgLAST MATCHES
03 MaySC Freiburg1–1VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
30 AprSC Braga2–1SC FreiburgUEFA Europa League
26 AprBorussia Dortmund4–0SC FreiburgBundesliga
23 AprVfB Stuttgart2–1SC FreiburgDFB Pokal
19 AprSC Freiburg2–11. FC HeidenheimBundesliga
16 AprCelta Vigo1–3SC FreiburgUEFA Europa League
10Win43%
3Draw13%
10Lost43%
LAST MATCHESRB Leipzig
02 MayBayer Leverkusen4–1RB LeipzigBundesliga
24 AprRB Leipzig3–1Union BerlinBundesliga
18 AprEintracht Frankfurt1–3RB LeipzigBundesliga
11 AprRB Leipzig1–0Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
04 AprWerder Bremen1–2RB LeipzigBundesliga
20 MarRB Leipzig5–01899 HoffenheimBundesliga
9Win53%
3Draw18%
5Lost29%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

SC Freiburg

No reported absences

RB Leipzig

No reported absences

Betting Strategy

●High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.38 (63.3%)
Both Teams Score1.41 (63.6%)
●Value Bets
SC Freiburg Win3.28 (33.3%)
RB Leipzig Win2.09 (46.3%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.90 (36.7%)
BTTS No2.80 (36.4%)
●Speculative
Draw4.30 (20.4%)
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig Predictions, Stats, H2H - 16 May 2026 | SureTipsPro