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Sassuolo vs Lecce

Serie ARegular Season - 37
Sassuolo
#10 · Serie A
WDWLW
VS
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia
Lecce
#17 · Serie A
WDDLL
47.8%
Home Win
25.1%
Draw
27.2%
Away Win
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.82
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.76 (implied 56.9%) for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 57.0% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.75. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Sassuolo will face Lecce in the Serie A at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Sassuolo has a 47.8% probability of winning this match. Lecce has a 27.2% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 25.1%.

Key factors in this prediction:

  • Sassuolo have won 3 of their last 5 games
  • Both teams average a combined 1.9 goals per game, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair

Match Preview

AI

Predictions

Closely matched
Match Result
1 — Sassuolo47.8%2.31
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.557%1.76
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No50.9%1.95
Based on avg. implied odds from 9 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes
1-1
5.86
17.1%
1-0
7.13
14.1%
0-0
8.27
12.2%
0-1
8.51
11.8%
2-1
8.82
11.4%
2-0
10.34
9.7%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds
MarketOption 1Option 2Option 3
1X2Home 2.31Draw 3.18Away 3.18
O/U 2.5Over 2.07Under 1.76
O/U 1.5Over 1.34Under 3.09
O/U 3.5Over 3.57Under 1.26
BTTSYes 1.80No 1.95
Double Chance1X 1.3512 1.33X2 1.60

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
88.5%
Over 1.5 Goals
69.8%
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
Over 3.5 Goals
26.1%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Serie A Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Inter
35264582315182
WDWWW
2
Napoli
35217752331970
DWLDW
3
AC Milan
351910648291967
LDWLL
4
Juventus
351811658302865
DDWWW
5
AS Roma
352041152292364
WWDWL
6
Como
351711759283162
DWLLD
10
Sassuolo
35147144344-149
WDWLW
17
Lecce
3588192447-2332
WDDLL
18
Cremonese
35610192753-2628
LLDLL
19
Hellas Verona
35311212457-3320
DDLLL
20
Pisa
35212212563-3818
LLLLL

Key Statistics

2025 Season
SassuoloLecce
1.18Goals p.g.0.71
1.29Goals conceded p.g.1.29
24%Clean sheets18%
47%Win rate24%
2.47Avg goals in match2

Recent Results

SassuoloLAST MATCHES
03 MaySassuolo2–0AC MilanSerie A
26 AprFiorentina0–0SassuoloSerie A
17 AprSassuolo2–1ComoSerie A
12 AprGenoa2–1SassuoloSerie A
04 AprSassuolo2–1CagliariSerie A
21 MarJuventus1–1SassuoloSerie A
8Win47%
2Draw12%
7Lost41%
LAST MATCHESLecce
01 MayPisa1–2LecceSerie A
25 AprHellas Verona0–0LecceSerie A
20 AprLecce1–1FiorentinaSerie A
12 AprBologna2–0LecceSerie A
06 AprLecce0–3AtalantaSerie A
22 MarAS Roma1–0LecceSerie A
4Win24%
3Draw18%
10Lost59%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

1 player

Sassuolo

No reported absences

Lecce1

✕F. Marchwiński
Missing FixtureJumpers knee

Betting Strategy

●High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.76 (57%)
●Value Bets
Sassuolo Win2.31 (47.8%)
Draw3.18 (25.1%)
Lecce Win3.18 (27.2%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.07 (43%)
Both Teams Score1.80 (49.1%)
BTTS No1.95 (50.9%)
Sassuolo vs Lecce Predictions, Stats, H2H - 17 May 2026 | SureTipsPro