Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs V-varen Nagasaki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
#3 · J1 League
WWDLL
2 - 0
Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, Hiroshima
V-varen Nagasaki
#10 · J1 League
DLLLW
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.75
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.68 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 53.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Sanfrecce Hiroshima will face V-varen Nagasaki in the J1 League at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Sanfrecce Hiroshima has a 62.1% probability of winning this match. V-varen Nagasaki has a 17.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Sanfrecce Hiroshima62.1%1.46
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.553.3%1.68
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes52.7%1.79
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
6.78
14.8%
2-0
6.94
14.5%
2-1
7.42
13.6%
1-1
7.67
13.1%
3-0
9.68
10.4%
3-1
10.60
9.6%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.46 | Draw 4.26 | Away 6.22 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.68 | Under 2.12 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.20 | Under 4.16 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.66 | Under 1.42 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.79 | No 1.92 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.11 | 12 1.18 | X2 2.56 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals91.6%
Over 1.5 Goals77.6%
Over 2.5 Goals53.3%
Over 3.5 Goals34.8%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashima | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 32 | WWWLW |
| 1 |  Vissel Kobe | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 25 | WWWWL |
| 2 |  Nagoya Grampus | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 21 | WWLWL |
| 2 |  FC Tokyo | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 26 | WWLWL |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 19 | WWWLL |
| 3 |  Machida Zelvia | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 9 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 11 | LLLWW |
| 10 | V-varen Nagasaki | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 12 | LLLWL |
| 10 |  JEF United Chiba | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 9 | LLLWL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonSanfrecce HiroshimaV-varen Nagasaki
1.5Goals p.g.1.18
1.39Goals conceded p.g.1.24
22%Clean sheets29%
44%Win rate41%
2.89Avg goals in match2.41
Recent Results
Sanfrecce HiroshimaLAST MATCHES
25 AprSanfrecce Hiroshima2–1Cerezo OsakaJ1 League
18 AprSanfrecce Hiroshima2–0V-varen NagasakiJ1 League
11 AprSanfrecce Hiroshima1–1Shimizu S-pulseJ1 League
05 AprSanfrecce Hiroshima0–1Avispa FukuokaJ1 League
27 MarVissel Kobe2–1Sanfrecce HiroshimaJ1 League
22 MarShimizu S-pulse3–1Sanfrecce HiroshimaJ1 League
8Win44%
3Draw17%
7Lost39%
LAST MATCHESV-varen Nagasaki
25 AprV-varen Nagasaki1–1Gamba OsakaJ1 League
18 AprSanfrecce Hiroshima2–0V-varen NagasakiJ1 League
11 AprAvispa Fukuoka1–0V-varen NagasakiJ1 League
05 AprV-varen Nagasaki0–3Shimizu S-pulseJ1 League
21 MarFagiano Okayama0–1V-varen NagasakiJ1 League
18 MarV-varen Nagasaki1–2Kyoto SangaJ1 League
7Win41%
2Draw12%
8Lost47%
Lineups
ConfirmedSanfrecce Hiroshima3-4-2-1Confirmed
4Hayato ArakiDEF
19Sasaki ShoDEF
33Shiotani TsukasaDEF
10Akito SuzukiFWD
30Tolgay ArslanFWD
11Mutsuki KatoFWD
1Keisuke OsakoGK
14Taishi MatsumotoMID
24Shunki HigashiMID
13Naoto AraiMID
6Kawabe HayaoMID
Substitutes
15Shuto NakanoDEF
3Taichi YamasakiDEF
41Maeda NaokiFWD
9Ryo GermainFWD
39Sota NakamuraFWD
17Kinoshita KosukeFWD
99Issei OuchiGK
25Chajima YusukeMID
35Yotaro NakajimaMID
V-varen Nagasaki3-4-2-1Confirmed
50Ryosuke ShindoDEF
48Hayato TeruyamaDEF
29Ikki AraiDEF
41Motoki HasegawaFWD
8Yuto IwasakiFWD
9Thiago SantanaFWD
13Go HatanoGK
5Yamaguchi HotaruMID
21Diego PitucaMID
23Shunya YonedaMID
22Hijiri OnagaMID
Substitutes
4EduardoDEF
3Masahiro SekiguchiDEF
18Yamasaki RyogoFWD
1Masaaki GotoGK
11Norman CampbellMID
24Riku YamadaMID
33Tsubasa KasayanagiMID
10Matheus JesusMID
34Tenmu MatsumotoMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersSanfrecce Hiroshima
No reported absences
V-varen Nagasaki
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win1.46 (62.1%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.68 (53.3%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.12 (46.7%)
Both Teams Score1.79 (52.7%)
BTTS No1.92 (47.3%)
Speculative
Draw4.26 (20%)
V-varen Nagasaki Win6.22 (17.9%)
