Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
#3 · J1 League
WWDLL
2 - 1
Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, Hiroshima
Cerezo Osaka
#6 · J1 League
LWWLD
★ OUR PICK
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Cerezo Osaka make Sanfrecce Hiroshima the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.67
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.61 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima to Win. Our model calculates a 55.6% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Sanfrecce Hiroshima will face Cerezo Osaka in the J1 League at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Sanfrecce Hiroshima has a 55.6% probability of winning this match. Cerezo Osaka has a 23.6% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20.9%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Sanfrecce Hiroshima55.6%1.61
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.554.3%1.65
Both Teams to Score
Yes55.4%1.66
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
7.10
14.1%
2-1
7.36
13.7%
1-0
7.60
13.2%
2-0
8.06
12.5%
3-1
11.21
9%
3-0
11.91
8.5%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.61 | Draw 3.98 | Away 4.82 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.65 | Under 2.18 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.18 | Under 4.34 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.57 | Under 1.45 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.66 | No 2.10 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.16 | 12 1.21 | X2 2.23 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals91.9%
Over 1.5 Goals78.5%
Over 2.5 Goals54.3%
Over 3.5 Goals36%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashima | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 32 | WWWLW |
| 1 |  Vissel Kobe | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 25 | WWWWL |
| 2 |  Nagoya Grampus | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 21 | WWLWL |
| 2 |  FC Tokyo | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 26 | WWLWL |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 19 | WWWLL |
| 3 |  Machida Zelvia | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 17 | LWWLW |
| 9 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 11 | LLLWW |
| 10 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 12 | LLLWL |
| 10 |  JEF United Chiba | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 9 | LLLWL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonSanfrecce HiroshimaCerezo Osaka
1.5Goals p.g.1.24
1.39Goals conceded p.g.1.24
22%Clean sheets35%
44%Win rate35%
2.89Avg goals in match2.47
Recent Results
Sanfrecce HiroshimaLAST MATCHES
25 AprSanfrecce Hiroshima2–1Cerezo OsakaJ1 League
18 AprSanfrecce Hiroshima2–0V-varen NagasakiJ1 League
11 AprSanfrecce Hiroshima1–1Shimizu S-pulseJ1 League
05 AprSanfrecce Hiroshima0–1Avispa FukuokaJ1 League
27 MarVissel Kobe2–1Sanfrecce HiroshimaJ1 League
22 MarShimizu S-pulse3–1Sanfrecce HiroshimaJ1 League
8Win44%
3Draw17%
7Lost39%
LAST MATCHESCerezo Osaka
25 AprSanfrecce Hiroshima2–1Cerezo OsakaJ1 League
18 AprCerezo Osaka3–0Kyoto SangaJ1 League
11 AprGamba Osaka0–1Cerezo OsakaJ1 League
04 AprNagoya Grampus3–0Cerezo OsakaJ1 League
22 MarCerezo Osaka1–1Vissel KobeJ1 League
18 MarCerezo Osaka1–2Fagiano OkayamaJ1 League
6Win35%
3Draw18%
8Lost47%
Lineups
ConfirmedSanfrecce Hiroshima3-4-2-1Confirmed
19Sasaki ShoDEF
33Shiotani TsukasaDEF
4Hayato ArakiDEF
30Tolgay ArslanFWD
11Mutsuki KatoFWD
10Akito SuzukiFWD
1Keisuke OsakoGK
24Shunki HigashiMID
14Taishi MatsumotoMID
13Naoto AraiMID
35Yotaro NakajimaMID
Substitutes
3Taichi YamasakiDEF
15Shuto NakanoDEF
41Maeda NaokiFWD
9Ryo GermainFWD
17Kinoshita KosukeFWD
99Issei OuchiGK
18Daiki SugaMID
25Chajima YusukeMID
40Motoki OharaMID
Cerezo Osaka4-2-3-1Confirmed
16Hayato OkudaDEF
44Shinnosuke HatanakaDEF
4Rikito InoueDEF
66Ayumu OhataDEF
11Thiago AndradeFWD
23Kosuke NakamuraGK
18Nelson IshiwatariMID
10Shunta TanakaMID
48Masaya ShibayamaMID
13Motohiko NakajimaMID
19Shion HommaMID
Substitutes
3Hayato TanakaDEF
27Dion CoolsDEF
9Solomon SakuragawaFWD
21Jin Hyeon KimGK
35Kyohei YoshinoMID
7Satoki UejoMID
14Yumeki YokoyamaMID
8Shinji KagawaMID
5Hinata KidaMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersSanfrecce Hiroshima
No reported absences
Cerezo Osaka
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win1.61 (55.6%)
Both Teams Score1.66 (55.4%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.65 (54.3%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.18 (45.7%)
BTTS No2.10 (44.6%)
Speculative
Draw3.98 (20.9%)
Cerezo Osaka Win4.82 (23.6%)
