Parma vs AS Roma
Parma
#12 · Serie A
LWWDD
VS
Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma
AS Roma
#5 · Serie A
WWDWL
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.84
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.77 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 53.7% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Parma will face AS Roma in the Serie A at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Parma has a 25.3% probability of winning this match. AS Roma has a 53.4% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.3%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- AS Roma have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Parma have kept clean sheets in 41% of their matches
- AS Roma have kept clean sheets in 42% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — AS Roma53.4%1.58
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.553.7%1.77
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No52.7%1.73
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes0-1
5.65
17.8%
0-2
6.55
15.3%
1-1
7.00
14.3%
1-2
7.93
12.7%
0-0
8.99
11.2%
0-3
10.91
9.2%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 5.58 | Draw 3.91 | Away 1.58 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.05 | Under 1.77 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.33 | Under 3.19 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.63 | Under 1.26 | |
| BTTS | Yes 2.03 | No 1.73 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 2.32 | 12 1.23 | X2 1.14 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89.6%
Over 1.5 Goals70.5%
Over 2.5 Goals46.3%
Over 3.5 Goals25.8%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 35 | 26 | 4 | 5 | 82 | 31 | 51 | 82 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Napoli | 35 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 52 | 33 | 19 | 70 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  AC Milan | 35 | 19 | 10 | 6 | 48 | 29 | 19 | 67 | LDWLL |
| 4 |  Juventus | 35 | 18 | 11 | 6 | 58 | 30 | 28 | 65 | DDWWW |
| 5 | AS Roma | 35 | 20 | 4 | 11 | 52 | 29 | 23 | 64 | WWDWL |
| 6 |  Como | 35 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 59 | 28 | 31 | 62 | DWLLD |
| 12 | Parma | 35 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 25 | 42 | -17 | 42 | LWWDD |
| 18 |  Cremonese | 35 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 27 | 53 | -26 | 28 | LLDLL |
| 19 |  Hellas Verona | 35 | 3 | 11 | 21 | 24 | 57 | -33 | 20 | DDLLL |
| 20 |  Pisa | 35 | 2 | 12 | 21 | 25 | 63 | -38 | 18 | LLLLL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonParmaAS Roma
0.76Goals p.g.1.84
1.24Goals conceded p.g.1.21
41%Clean sheets42%
35%Win rate42%
2Avg goals in match3.05
Recent Results
ParmaLAST MATCHES
03 MayInter2–0ParmaSerie A
25 AprParma1–0PisaSerie A
18 AprUdinese0–1ParmaSerie A
12 AprParma1–1NapoliSerie A
04 AprLazio1–1ParmaSerie A
21 MarParma0–2CremoneseSerie A
6Win35%
6Draw35%
5Lost29%
LAST MATCHESAS Roma
04 MayAS Roma4–0FiorentinaSerie A
25 AprBologna0–2AS RomaSerie A
18 AprAS Roma1–1AtalantaSerie A
10 AprAS Roma3–0PisaSerie A
05 AprInter5–2AS RomaSerie A
22 MarAS Roma1–0LecceSerie A
8Win42%
6Draw32%
5Lost26%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
1 playerParma
No reported absences
AS Roma1
E. Bove
Missing Fixtureheart problems
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Parma Win5.58 (25.3%)
AS Roma Win1.58 (53.4%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.05 (46.3%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.77 (53.7%)
Both Teams Score2.03 (47.3%)
BTTS No1.73 (52.7%)
Speculative
Draw3.91 (21.3%)
