Napoli vs Bologna
Napoli
#2 · Serie A
DWLDW
VS
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples
Bologna
#9 · Serie A
DLLLW
★ OUR PICK
Napoli to Win
Strong home form and superior underlying numbers over Bologna make Napoli the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.61
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.55 for Napoli to Win. Our model calculates a 60.2% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Napoli will face Bologna in the Serie A at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Napoli has a 60.2% probability of winning this match. Bologna has a 18.6% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.1%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Napoli60.2%1.55
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.551.8%1.90
Both Teams to Score
No50.8%1.80
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
6.03
16.6%
2-0
6.81
14.7%
1-1
7.19
14%
2-1
7.60
13.2%
0-0
10.01
10.1%
3-0
10.65
9.4%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.55 | Draw 3.99 | Away 5.91 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.90 | Under 1.90 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.28 | Under 3.49 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.20 | Under 1.33 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.93 | No 1.80 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.12 | 12 1.23 | X2 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.5%
Over 1.5 Goals73.1%
Over 2.5 Goals48.2%
Over 3.5 Goals29.3%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 35 | 26 | 4 | 5 | 82 | 31 | 51 | 82 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Napoli | 35 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 52 | 33 | 19 | 70 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  AC Milan | 35 | 19 | 10 | 6 | 48 | 29 | 19 | 67 | LDWLL |
| 4 |  Juventus | 35 | 18 | 11 | 6 | 58 | 30 | 28 | 65 | DDWWW |
| 5 |  AS Roma | 35 | 20 | 4 | 11 | 52 | 29 | 23 | 64 | WWDWL |
| 6 |  Como | 35 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 59 | 28 | 31 | 62 | DWLLD |
| 9 | Bologna | 35 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 42 | 41 | 1 | 49 | DLLWW |
| 18 |  Cremonese | 35 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 27 | 53 | -26 | 28 | LLDLL |
| 19 |  Hellas Verona | 35 | 3 | 11 | 21 | 24 | 57 | -33 | 20 | DDLLL |
| 20 |  Pisa | 35 | 2 | 12 | 21 | 25 | 63 | -38 | 18 | LLLLL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonNapoliBologna
1.47Goals p.g.1.05
1.24Goals conceded p.g.1.24
24%Clean sheets38%
47%Win rate48%
2.71Avg goals in match2.29
Recent Results
NapoliLAST MATCHES
02 MayComo0–0NapoliSerie A
24 AprNapoli4–0CremoneseSerie A
18 AprNapoli0–2LazioSerie A
12 AprParma1–1NapoliSerie A
06 AprNapoli1–0AC MilanSerie A
20 MarCagliari0–1NapoliSerie A
8Win47%
5Draw29%
4Lost24%
LAST MATCHESBologna
03 MayBologna0–0CagliariSerie A
25 AprBologna0–2AS RomaSerie A
19 AprJuventus2–0BolognaSerie A
16 AprAston Villa4–0BolognaUEFA Europa League
12 AprBologna2–0LecceSerie A
09 AprBologna1–3Aston VillaUEFA Europa League
10Win48%
3Draw14%
8Lost38%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNapoli
No reported absences
Bologna
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Napoli Win1.55 (60.2%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.90 (48.2%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.90 (51.8%)
Both Teams Score1.93 (49.2%)
BTTS No1.80 (50.8%)
Speculative
Draw3.99 (21.1%)
Bologna Win5.91 (18.6%)
