Nagoya Grampus vs Avispa Fukuoka
Nagoya Grampus
#2 · J1 League
WDLWD
2 - 2
Toyota Stadium, Toyota City
Avispa Fukuoka
#9 · J1 League
LWDWW
★ OUR PICK
Nagoya Grampus to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Avispa Fukuoka make Nagoya Grampus the value pick here.
Moneyline
2.01
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.76 for Nagoya Grampus to Win. Our model calculates a 53.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Nagoya Grampus will face Avispa Fukuoka in the J1 League at Toyota Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Nagoya Grampus has a 53.3% probability of winning this match. Avispa Fukuoka has a 24% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.6%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Avispa Fukuoka have won 3 of their last 5 games
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Nagoya Grampus53.3%1.76
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.550.6%1.69
Both Teams to Score
Yes52%1.97
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
5.62
17.9%
1-1
6.22
16.2%
2-0
7.16
14%
2-1
7.77
13%
0-0
8.32
12.2%
0-1
10.18
10%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.76 | Draw 3.51 | Away 4.62 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.12 | Under 1.69 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.34 | Under 3.00 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.79 | Under 1.23 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.97 | No 1.75 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.18 | 12 1.27 | X2 2.01 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals88.6%
Over 1.5 Goals69%
Over 2.5 Goals49.4%
Over 3.5 Goals24.5%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashima | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 32 | WWWLW |
| 1 |  Vissel Kobe | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 25 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Nagoya Grampus | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 21 | WWLWL |
| 2 |  FC Tokyo | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 26 | WWLWL |
| 3 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 19 | WWWLL |
| 3 |  Machida Zelvia | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 9 | Avispa Fukuoka | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 15 | LWLWW |
| 9 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 11 | LLLWW |
| 10 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 12 | LLLWL |
| 10 |  JEF United Chiba | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 9 | LLLWL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonNagoya GrampusAvispa Fukuoka
1.41Goals p.g.1.44
1.35Goals conceded p.g.1.72
29%Clean sheets11%
35%Win rate28%
2.76Avg goals in match3.17
Recent Results
Nagoya GrampusLAST MATCHES
25 AprShimizu S-pulse0–2Nagoya GrampusJ1 League
19 AprNagoya Grampus2–2Avispa FukuokaJ1 League
11 AprVissel Kobe3–2Nagoya GrampusJ1 League
04 AprNagoya Grampus3–0Cerezo OsakaJ1 League
22 MarKyoto Sanga1–1Nagoya GrampusJ1 League
18 MarNagoya Grampus2–1Sanfrecce HiroshimaJ1 League
6Win35%
5Draw29%
6Lost35%
LAST MATCHESAvispa Fukuoka
25 AprFagiano Okayama2–0Avispa FukuokaJ1 League
22 AprGamba Osaka1–2Avispa FukuokaJ1 League
19 AprNagoya Grampus2–2Avispa FukuokaJ1 League
11 AprAvispa Fukuoka1–0V-varen NagasakiJ1 League
05 AprSanfrecce Hiroshima0–1Avispa FukuokaJ1 League
21 MarAvispa Fukuoka2–2Gamba OsakaJ1 League
5Win28%
6Draw33%
6Lost33%
Lineups
ConfirmedNagoya Grampus3-4-2-1Confirmed
70Teruki HaraDEF
13Haruya FujiiDEF
31Tomoki TakamineDEF
11Yuya YamagishiFWD
22Yudai KimuraFWD
7Ryuji IzumiFWD
1Daniel SchmidtGK
15Sho InagakiMID
14Tsukasa MorishimaMID
19Hidemasa KodaMID
27Katsuhiro NakayamaMID
Substitutes
20Kennedy MikuniDEF
44Soichiro MoriDEF
2Yuki NogamiDEF
30Shungo SugiuraFWD
35Alexandre PisanoGK
9Yuya AsanoMID
41Masahito OnoMID
17Takuya UchidaMID
33Taichi KikuchiMID
Avispa Fukuoka3-4-2-1Confirmed
37Masaya TashiroDEF
15Yuma TsujiokaDEF
16Teppei OkaDEF
25Yuji KitajimaFWD
6Masato ShigemiFWD
7Shosei UsuiFWD
41Kazuki FujitaGK
11Tomoya MikiMID
29Yota MaejimaMID
47Yu HashimotoMID
8Kohei OkunoMID
Substitutes
3Nara TatsukiDEF
45Daiki MiyaDEF
33Kaoru YamawakiDEF
28Reiju TsurunoFWD
32Hanan SaniburaunFWD
27Yutaka MichiwakiFWD
22Kazuki FujimotoFWD
99Powell Obinna ObiGK
46Kazuki FukushimaMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersNagoya Grampus
No reported absences
Avispa Fukuoka
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Nagoya Grampus Win1.76 (53.3%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.12 (49.4%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.69 (50.6%)
Both Teams Score1.97 (52%)
BTTS No1.75 (48%)
Speculative
Draw3.51 (22.6%)
Avispa Fukuoka Win4.62 (24%)
