Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis
Larisa
#6 · Super League 1
DLDLL
VS
AEL FC Arena, Larissa
Asteras Tripolis
#5 · Super League 1
WLWDD
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.62
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.57 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 59.0% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Larisa will face Asteras Tripolis in the Super League 1 at AEL FC Arena.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Larisa has a 39.2% probability of winning this match. Asteras Tripolis has a 34.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 25.9%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Both teams average a combined 1.8 goals per game, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Larisa39.2%2.47
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.559%1.57
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No52.1%1.78
Based on avg. implied odds from 11 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.61
17.9%
1-0
6.50
15.5%
0-0
7.02
14.4%
0-1
7.15
14.1%
2-1
9.10
11.1%
1-2
10.04
10.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.47 | Draw 2.96 | Away 2.91 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.32 | Under 1.57 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.41 | Under 2.69 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 4.27 | Under 1.19 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.92 | No 1.78 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.37 | 12 1.34 | X2 1.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals86.4%
Over 1.5 Goals65.6%
Over 2.5 Goals41%
Over 3.5 Goals21.8%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Super League 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Levadiakos | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 57 | 42 | 15 | 25 | WLDWL |
| 1 |  Atromitos | 32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 40 | LWWWD |
| 1 |  AEK Athens FC | 29 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 53 | 17 | 36 | 67 | DWWWD |
| 2 |  Aris Thessalonikis | 29 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 22 | WWDLD |
| 2 |  PAOK | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 55 | 21 | 34 | 61 | WLDLW |
| 2 |  Kifisia | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 34 | WDDDD |
| 4 |  Volos NFC | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 31 | 47 | -16 | 17 | LLDWL |
| 5 | Asteras Tripolis | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 28 | WLWDD |
| 6 | Larisa | 32 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 28 | 50 | -22 | 25 | DLDLL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonLarisaAsteras Tripolis
0.83Goals p.g.0.94
1.28Goals conceded p.g.1.67
28%Clean sheets17%
17%Win rate22%
2.11Avg goals in match2.61
Recent Results
LarisaLAST MATCHES
02 MayPanserraikos1–1LarisaSuper League 1
26 AprLarisa0–1PanserraikosSuper League 1
22 AprLarisa1–1KifisiaSuper League 1
18 AprAtromitos3–2LarisaSuper League 1
08 AprLarisa1–2PanetolikosSuper League 1
04 AprAsteras Tripolis3–1LarisaSuper League 1
3Win17%
8Draw44%
7Lost39%
LAST MATCHESAsteras Tripolis
02 MayAsteras Tripolis4–2AtromitosSuper League 1
26 AprAtromitos2–1Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
22 AprAsteras Tripolis2–1PanetolikosSuper League 1
18 AprKifisia0–0Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
08 AprPanserraikos0–0Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
04 AprAsteras Tripolis3–1LarisaSuper League 1
4Win22%
3Draw17%
11Lost61%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLarisa
No reported absences
Asteras Tripolis
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.57 (59%)
Value Bets
Larisa Win2.47 (39.2%)
Draw2.96 (25.9%)
Asteras Tripolis Win2.91 (34.9%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.32 (41%)
Both Teams Score1.92 (47.9%)
BTTS No1.78 (52.1%)
