Kashima vs Urawa
Kashima
#1 · J1 League
WWWDW
1 - 0
Mercari Stadium, Kashima
Urawa
#7 · J1 League
LLDLL
★ OUR PICK
Kashima to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Urawa make Kashima the value pick here.
Moneyline
2.06
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.99 (implied 50.3%) for Kashima to Win. Our model calculates a 54.9% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.82. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Kashima will face Urawa in the J1 League at Mercari Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Kashima has a 54.9% probability of winning this match. Urawa has a 22% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.1%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Kashima are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
- Kashima boast a strong defence, conceding just 0.6 goals per game
- Kashima have kept clean sheets in 59% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Kashima54.9%1.99
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.552.4%1.84
Both Teams to Score
Yes51.5%1.76
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.17
16.3%
1-0
6.84
14.7%
2-1
7.86
12.8%
2-0
8.84
11.4%
0-0
9.46
10.7%
0-1
9.69
10.4%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.99 | Draw 3.45 | Away 3.51 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.93 | Under 1.84 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.28 | Under 3.37 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.32 | Under 1.29 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.76 | No 1.97 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.27 | 12 1.27 | X2 1.78 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90%
Over 1.5 Goals72.4%
Over 2.5 Goals47.6%
Over 3.5 Goals28%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashima | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 32 | WWWLW |
| 1 |  Vissel Kobe | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 25 | WWWWL |
| 2 |  Nagoya Grampus | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 21 | WWLWL |
| 2 |  FC Tokyo | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 26 | WWLWL |
| 3 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 19 | WWWLL |
| 3 |  Machida Zelvia | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 7 | Urawa | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 12 | LLLLL |
| 9 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 11 | LLLWW |
| 10 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 12 | LLLWL |
| 10 |  JEF United Chiba | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 9 | LLLWL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonKashimaUrawa
1.71Goals p.g.1.47
0.59Goals conceded p.g.1.24
59%Clean sheets29%
82%Win rate41%
2.29Avg goals in match2.71
Recent Results
KashimaLAST MATCHES
24 AprKashiwa Reysol0–1KashimaJ1 League
18 AprKashima1–0UrawaJ1 League
12 AprKawasaki Frontale0–2KashimaJ1 League
04 AprMito Hollyhock1–1KashimaJ1 League
22 MarKashima2–1JEF United ChibaJ1 League
18 MarMachida Zelvia0–3KashimaJ1 League
14Win82%
3Draw18%
0Lost0%
LAST MATCHESUrawa
25 AprUrawa2–3Yokohama F. MarinosJ1 League
18 AprKashima1–0UrawaJ1 League
12 AprUrawa1–1Tokyo VerdyJ1 League
05 AprKawasaki Frontale3–2UrawaJ1 League
22 MarUrawa1–2Machida ZelviaJ1 League
18 MarUrawa1–1Kashiwa ReysolJ1 League
7Win41%
3Draw18%
7Lost41%
Lineups
ConfirmedKashima4-4-2Confirmed
22Kimito NonoDEF
2Koki AnzaiDEF
3Tae-hyeon KimDEF
55Naomichi UedaDEF
9Léo CearáFWD
11Kyosuke TagawaFWD
1Tomoki HayakawaGK
27Yuta MatsumuraMID
10Gaku ShibasakiMID
40Yuma SuzukiMID
6Kento MisaoMID
Substitutes
23Keisuke TsukuiDEF
7Ryoya OgawaDEF
19Shu MorookaFWD
77Aleksandar ČavrićFWD
29Yuji KajikawaGK
24Haruki HayashiMID
71Ryotaro ArakiMID
14Yuta HiguchiMID
13Kei ChinenMID
Urawa4-2-3-1Confirmed
2Yuta MiyamotoDEF
88Yoichi NaganumaDEF
5Kenta NemotoDEF
4Hirokazu IshiharaDEF
45Ado OnaiwuFWD
1Shusaku NishikawaGK
22Kai ShibatoMID
25Kaito YasuiMID
8Matheus SávioMID
13Ryoma WatanabeMID
77Takuro KanekoMID
Substitutes
26Takuya OgiwaraDEF
27Toshikazu TeruuchiFWD
7Hiroki AbeFWD
9Isaac ThelinFWD
36Renji HidanoFWD
16Ayumi NiekawaGK
37Ueki HayateMID
14Takahiro SekineMID
39Jumpei HayakawaMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersKashima
No reported absences
Urawa
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Kashima Win1.99 (54.9%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.93 (47.6%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.84 (52.4%)
Both Teams Score1.76 (51.5%)
BTTS No1.97 (48.5%)
Speculative
Draw3.45 (23.1%)
Urawa Win3.51 (22%)
