Genoa vs AC Milan
Genoa
#14 · Serie A
DLWWL
VS
Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
AC Milan
#3 · Serie A
LDWLL
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.96
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.91 (implied 52.4%) for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 54.7% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.83. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Genoa will face AC Milan in the Serie A at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Genoa has a 31.4% probability of winning this match. AC Milan has a 46% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.6%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- AC Milan sit 3rd in the table, 11 places above their opponents
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — AC Milan46%1.79
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.554.7%1.91
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No50.8%1.95
Based on avg. implied odds from 8 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.55
15.3%
0-1
6.57
15.3%
1-2
7.76
13%
0-2
8.06
12.5%
0-0
9.55
10.5%
1-0
10.96
9.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 4.37 | Draw 3.70 | Away 1.79 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.92 | Under 1.91 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.28 | Under 3.44 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.20 | Under 1.32 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.80 | No 1.95 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.99 | 12 1.26 | X2 1.22 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89.9%
Over 1.5 Goals72.9%
Over 2.5 Goals45.3%
Over 3.5 Goals29.2%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 35 | 26 | 4 | 5 | 82 | 31 | 51 | 82 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Napoli | 35 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 52 | 33 | 19 | 70 | DWLDW |
| 3 | AC Milan | 35 | 19 | 10 | 6 | 48 | 29 | 19 | 67 | LDWLL |
| 4 |  Juventus | 35 | 18 | 11 | 6 | 58 | 30 | 28 | 65 | DDWWW |
| 5 |  AS Roma | 35 | 20 | 4 | 11 | 52 | 29 | 23 | 64 | WWDWL |
| 6 |  Como | 35 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 59 | 28 | 31 | 62 | DWLLD |
| 14 | Genoa | 35 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 40 | 48 | -8 | 40 | DLWWL |
| 18 |  Cremonese | 35 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 27 | 53 | -26 | 28 | LLDLL |
| 19 |  Hellas Verona | 35 | 3 | 11 | 21 | 24 | 57 | -33 | 20 | DDLLL |
| 20 |  Pisa | 35 | 2 | 12 | 21 | 25 | 63 | -38 | 18 | LLLLL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonGenoaAC Milan
1.29Goals p.g.1.12
1.18Goals conceded p.g.0.88
35%Clean sheets35%
41%Win rate47%
2.47Avg goals in match2
Recent Results
GenoaLAST MATCHES
02 MayAtalanta0–0GenoaSerie A
26 AprGenoa0–2ComoSerie A
19 AprPisa1–2GenoaSerie A
12 AprGenoa2–1SassuoloSerie A
06 AprJuventus2–0GenoaSerie A
20 MarGenoa0–2UdineseSerie A
7Win41%
4Draw24%
6Lost35%
LAST MATCHESAC Milan
03 MaySassuolo2–0AC MilanSerie A
26 AprAC Milan0–0JuventusSerie A
19 AprHellas Verona0–1AC MilanSerie A
11 AprAC Milan0–3UdineseSerie A
06 AprNapoli1–0AC MilanSerie A
21 MarAC Milan3–2TorinoSerie A
8Win47%
4Draw24%
5Lost29%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersGenoa
No reported absences
AC Milan
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Genoa Win4.37 (31.4%)
AC Milan Win1.79 (46%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.92 (45.3%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.91 (54.7%)
Both Teams Score1.80 (49.2%)
BTTS No1.95 (50.8%)
Speculative
Draw3.70 (22.6%)
