Gamba Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama
Gamba Osaka
#4 · J1 League
DLDWL
2 - 2
Panasonic Stadium Suita, Suita
Referee: Yuzo Sutani, Japan
Fagiano Okayama
#8 · J1 League
WDLLL
★ OUR PICK
Gamba Osaka to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Fagiano Okayama make Gamba Osaka the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.96
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.77 for Gamba Osaka to Win. Our model calculates a 52.6% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Gamba Osaka will face Fagiano Okayama in the J1 League at Panasonic Stadium Suita.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Gamba Osaka has a 52.6% probability of winning this match. Fagiano Okayama has a 24.8% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.7%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Gamba Osaka52.6%1.77
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.550.9%1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes52%1.78
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.34
15.9%
1-0
6.47
15.6%
2-1
7.57
13.3%
2-0
7.95
12.7%
0-0
9.45
10.7%
0-1
10.93
9.3%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.77 | Draw 3.54 | Away 4.51 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.91 | Under 1.86 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.27 | Under 3.42 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.25 | Under 1.30 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.78 | No 1.92 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.19 | 12 1.27 | X2 1.99 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.1%
Over 1.5 Goals72.9%
Over 2.5 Goals49.1%
Over 3.5 Goals28.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashima | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 32 | WWWLW |
| 1 |  Vissel Kobe | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 25 | WWWWL |
| 2 |  Nagoya Grampus | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 21 | WWLWL |
| 2 |  FC Tokyo | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 26 | WWLWL |
| 3 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 19 | WWWLL |
| 3 |  Machida Zelvia | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 4 | Gamba Osaka | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 19 | LWLWL |
| 8 | Fagiano Okayama | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 15 | WLLLL |
| 9 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 11 | LLLWW |
| 10 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 12 | LLLWL |
| 10 |  JEF United Chiba | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 9 | LLLWL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonGamba OsakaFagiano Okayama
1.5Goals p.g.1.06
1.15Goals conceded p.g.1.53
20%Clean sheets12%
35%Win rate24%
2.65Avg goals in match2.59
Recent Results
Gamba OsakaLAST MATCHES
25 AprV-varen Nagasaki1–1Gamba OsakaJ1 League
22 AprGamba Osaka1–2Avispa FukuokaJ1 League
19 AprGamba Osaka2–2Fagiano OkayamaJ1 League
15 AprBangkok United0–3Gamba OsakaAFC Champions League Two
11 AprGamba Osaka0–1Cerezo OsakaJ1 League
08 AprGamba Osaka0–1Bangkok UnitedAFC Champions League Two
7Win35%
9Draw45%
4Lost20%
LAST MATCHESFagiano Okayama
25 AprFagiano Okayama2–0Avispa FukuokaJ1 League
19 AprGamba Osaka2–2Fagiano OkayamaJ1 League
11 AprKyoto Sanga5–1Fagiano OkayamaJ1 League
05 AprFagiano Okayama1–4Vissel KobeJ1 League
21 MarFagiano Okayama0–1V-varen NagasakiJ1 League
18 MarCerezo Osaka1–2Fagiano OkayamaJ1 League
4Win24%
6Draw35%
7Lost41%
Lineups
ConfirmedGamba Osaka4-2-3-1Confirmed
15Takeru KishimotoDEF
21Ryo HatsuseDEF
4Shinnosuke NakataniDEF
5Genta MiuraDEF
23Deniz HümmetFWD
1Masaaki HigashiguchiGK
97WeltonMID
11Issam JebaliMID
17Ryoya YamashitaMID
16Tokuma SuzukiMID
13Shuto AbeMID
Substitutes
19Ginjiro IkegayaDEF
47Shinya NakanoDEF
8Ryotaro MeshinoFWD
7Takashi UsamiFWD
42Harumi MinaminoFWD
18Rui ArakiGK
27Rin MitoMID
44Kanji OkunukiMID
10Shu KurataMID
Fagiano Okayama3-4-2-1Confirmed
18Daichi TagamiDEF
6Hiroshi OmoriDEF
48Yugo TatsutaDEF
27Takaya KimuraFWD
22Kazunari IchimiFWD
8Ataru EsakaFWD
1Lennart MoserGK
26Haruka MotoyamaMID
45Noah Kenshin BrowneMID
5Kosei OguraMID
41Eiji MiyamotoMID
Substitutes
51Kosuke ShiraiDEF
4Kaito AbeDEF
9Léo GaúchoFWD
40Kota KawanoFWD
98Werik PopóFWD
52Taro HamadaGK
3Kaito FujiiMID
28Masaya MatsumotoMID
66Jun NishikawaMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersGamba Osaka
No reported absences
Fagiano Okayama
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Gamba Osaka Win1.77 (52.6%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.91 (49.1%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.86 (50.9%)
Both Teams Score1.78 (52%)
BTTS No1.92 (48%)
Speculative
Draw3.54 (22.7%)
Fagiano Okayama Win4.51 (24.8%)
