FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
#10 · Bundesliga
WLDLL
VS
Mewa Arena, Mainz
Union Berlin
#13 · Bundesliga
DLLLD
★ OUR PICK
FSV Mainz 05 to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Union Berlin make FSV Mainz 05 the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.80
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.76 (implied 56.8%) for FSV Mainz 05 to Win. Our model calculates a 57.1% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.75. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , FSV Mainz 05 will face Union Berlin in the Bundesliga at Mewa Arena.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that FSV Mainz 05 has a 57.1% probability of winning this match. Union Berlin has a 21.6% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.3%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — FSV Mainz 0557.1%1.76
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.555.5%1.72
Both Teams to Score
Yes56.3%1.67
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.93
14.5%
1-0
7.65
13.1%
2-1
7.70
13.1%
2-0
8.56
11.7%
0-0
12.21
8.3%
3-1
12.44
8.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.76 | Draw 3.82 | Away 4.28 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.72 | Under 2.12 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.21 | Under 4.16 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.73 | Under 1.43 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.67 | No 2.11 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.21 | 12 1.24 | X2 2.03 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals92.1%
Over 1.5 Goals77.5%
Over 2.5 Goals55.5%
Over 3.5 Goals34.4%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 32 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 116 | 35 | 81 | 83 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 32 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 65 | 32 | 33 | 67 | LWLLW |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 32 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 63 | 42 | 21 | 62 | LWWWW |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 66 | 43 | 23 | 58 | WWLWW |
| 5 |  VfB Stuttgart | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 66 | 46 | 20 | 58 | DDLWL |
| 6 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 64 | 48 | 16 | 58 | DWWDL |
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 41 | 50 | -9 | 37 | WLDLW |
| 13 | Union Berlin | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 37 | 57 | -20 | 33 | DLLLD |
| 16 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 42 | 67 | -25 | 26 | DDWLL |
| 17 |  FC St. Pauli | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 26 | LLDLD |
| 18 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 69 | -31 | 23 | DWLWD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonFSV Mainz 05Union Berlin
1.52Goals p.g.1
1.33Goals conceded p.g.2
24%Clean sheets12%
48%Win rate12%
2.86Avg goals in match3
Recent Results
FSV Mainz 05LAST MATCHES
03 MayFC St. Pauli1–2FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
25 AprFSV Mainz 053–4Bayern MünchenBundesliga
19 AprBorussia Mönchengladbach1–1FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
16 AprStrasbourg4–0FSV Mainz 05UEFA Europa Conference League
12 AprFSV Mainz 050–1SC FreiburgBundesliga
09 AprFSV Mainz 052–0StrasbourgUEFA Europa Conference League
10Win48%
6Draw29%
5Lost24%
LAST MATCHESUnion Berlin
02 MayUnion Berlin2–21. FC KölnBundesliga
24 AprRB Leipzig3–1Union BerlinBundesliga
18 AprUnion Berlin1–2VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
11 Apr1. FC Heidenheim3–1Union BerlinBundesliga
05 AprUnion Berlin1–1FC St. PauliBundesliga
21 MarBayern München4–0Union BerlinBundesliga
2Win12%
6Draw35%
9Lost53%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFSV Mainz 05
No reported absences
Union Berlin
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
FSV Mainz 05 Win1.76 (57.1%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.72 (55.5%)
Both Teams Score1.67 (56.3%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals2.12 (44.5%)
BTTS No2.11 (43.7%)
Speculative
Draw3.82 (21.3%)
Union Berlin Win4.28 (21.6%)
