Fiorentina vs Genoa
Fiorentina
#16 · Serie A
LDDWW
VS
Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
Genoa
#14 · Serie A
DLWWL
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.80
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.75 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 53.4% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Fiorentina will face Genoa in the Serie A at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Fiorentina has a 45% probability of winning this match. Genoa has a 31% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24.1%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Fiorentina45%2.07
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.553.4%1.75
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes51.7%1.83
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.96
16.8%
1-0
6.58
15.2%
2-1
8.23
12.2%
0-0
8.85
11.4%
2-0
9.06
11.1%
0-1
9.31
10.8%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.07 | Draw 3.29 | Away 3.59 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.08 | Under 1.75 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.35 | Under 3.10 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.71 | Under 1.26 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.83 | No 1.91 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.28 | 12 1.30 | X2 1.74 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89.2%
Over 1.5 Goals69.7%
Over 2.5 Goals46.6%
Over 3.5 Goals25.4%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 35 | 26 | 4 | 5 | 82 | 31 | 51 | 82 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Napoli | 35 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 52 | 33 | 19 | 70 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  AC Milan | 35 | 19 | 10 | 6 | 48 | 29 | 19 | 67 | LDWLL |
| 4 |  Juventus | 35 | 18 | 11 | 6 | 58 | 30 | 28 | 65 | DDWWW |
| 5 |  AS Roma | 35 | 20 | 4 | 11 | 52 | 29 | 23 | 64 | WWDWL |
| 6 |  Como | 35 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 59 | 28 | 31 | 62 | DWLLD |
| 14 | Genoa | 35 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 40 | 48 | -8 | 40 | DLWWL |
| 16 | Fiorentina | 35 | 8 | 13 | 14 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 37 | LDDWW |
| 18 |  Cremonese | 35 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 27 | 53 | -26 | 28 | LLDLL |
| 19 |  Hellas Verona | 35 | 3 | 11 | 21 | 24 | 57 | -33 | 20 | DDLLL |
| 20 |  Pisa | 35 | 2 | 12 | 21 | 25 | 63 | -38 | 18 | LLLLL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonFiorentinaGenoa
1.29Goals p.g.1.29
1.43Goals conceded p.g.1.18
29%Clean sheets35%
43%Win rate41%
2.71Avg goals in match2.47
Recent Results
FiorentinaLAST MATCHES
04 MayAS Roma4–0FiorentinaSerie A
26 AprFiorentina0–0SassuoloSerie A
20 AprLecce1–1FiorentinaSerie A
16 AprFiorentina2–1Crystal PalaceUEFA Europa Conference League
13 AprFiorentina1–0LazioSerie A
09 AprCrystal Palace3–0FiorentinaUEFA Europa Conference League
9Win43%
5Draw24%
7Lost33%
LAST MATCHESGenoa
02 MayAtalanta0–0GenoaSerie A
26 AprGenoa0–2ComoSerie A
19 AprPisa1–2GenoaSerie A
12 AprGenoa2–1SassuoloSerie A
06 AprJuventus2–0GenoaSerie A
20 MarGenoa0–2UdineseSerie A
7Win41%
4Draw24%
6Lost35%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFiorentina
No reported absences
Genoa
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Fiorentina Win2.07 (45%)
Genoa Win3.59 (31%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.08 (46.6%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.75 (53.4%)
Both Teams Score1.83 (51.7%)
BTTS No1.91 (48.3%)
Speculative
Draw3.29 (24.1%)
