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FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg

BundesligaRegular Season - 34
FC St. Pauli
#17 · Bundesliga
LLDLD
VS
Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg
VfL Wolfsburg
#16 · Bundesliga
DDWLL
37%
Home Win
23.7%
Draw
39.3%
Away Win
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.85
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.85 (implied 54.1%) for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 54.7% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.83. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , FC St. Pauli will face VfL Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga at Millerntor-Stadion.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that FC St. Pauli has a 37% probability of winning this match. VfL Wolfsburg has a 39.3% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.7%.

Key factors in this prediction:

  • Both teams average a combined 1.9 goals per game, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair

Match Preview

AI

Predictions

Closely matched
Match Result
2 — VfL Wolfsburg39.3%2.72
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.550.1%2.17
Both Teams to Score
Yes54.7%1.85
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 1 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes
1-1
6.10
16.4%
0-1
7.40
13.5%
1-0
7.50
13.3%
1-2
9.60
10.4%
2-1
9.60
10.4%
0-0
10.50
9.5%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds
MarketOption 1Option 2Option 3
1X2Home 2.77Draw 3.48Away 2.72
O/U 2.5Over 2.17Under 1.81
O/U 1.5Over 1.34Under 3.20
O/U 3.5Over 3.70Under 1.26
BTTSYes 1.85No 1.95
Double Chance1X 1.5212 1.35X2 1.50

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
91.2%
Over 1.5 Goals
70.5%
Over 2.5 Goals
50.1%
Over 3.5 Goals
25.4%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Bundesliga Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Bayern München
322651116358183
DWWWW
2
Borussia Dortmund
32207565323367
LWLLW
3
RB Leipzig
32195863422162
LWWWW
4
Bayer Leverkusen
32177866432358
WWLWW
5
VfB Stuttgart
32177866462058
DDLWL
6
1899 Hoffenheim
32177864481658
DWWDL
16
VfL Wolfsburg
3268184267-2526
DDWLL
17
FC St. Pauli
3268182755-2826
LLDLD
18
1. FC Heidenheim
3258193869-3123
DWLWD

Key Statistics

2025 Season
FC St. PauliVfL Wolfsburg
0.76Goals p.g.1.12
1.76Goals conceded p.g.2.29
18%Clean sheets6%
18%Win rate12%
2.53Avg goals in match3.41

Recent Results

FC St. PauliLAST MATCHES
03 MayFC St. Pauli1–2FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
25 Apr1. FC Heidenheim2–0FC St. PauliBundesliga
17 AprFC St. Pauli1–11. FC KölnBundesliga
11 AprFC St. Pauli0–5Bayern MünchenBundesliga
05 AprUnion Berlin1–1FC St. PauliBundesliga
22 MarFC St. Pauli1–2SC FreiburgBundesliga
3Win18%
5Draw29%
9Lost53%
LAST MATCHESVfL Wolfsburg
03 MaySC Freiburg1–1VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
25 AprVfL Wolfsburg0–0Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
18 AprUnion Berlin1–2VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
11 AprVfL Wolfsburg1–2Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
04 AprBayer Leverkusen6–3VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
21 MarVfL Wolfsburg0–1Werder BremenBundesliga
2Win12%
5Draw29%
10Lost59%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

FC St. Pauli

No reported absences

VfL Wolfsburg

No reported absences

Betting Strategy

●Value Bets
FC St. Pauli Win2.77 (37%)
VfL Wolfsburg Win2.72 (39.3%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.17 (50.1%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.81 (49.9%)
Both Teams Score1.85 (54.7%)
BTTS No1.95 (45.3%)
●Speculative
Draw3.48 (23.7%)
FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg Predictions, Stats, H2H - 16 May 2026 | SureTipsPro