Fagiano Okayama vs Avispa Fukuoka
Fagiano Okayama
#8 · J1 League
WDLLL
2 - 0
City Light Stadium, Okayama
Avispa Fukuoka
#9 · J1 League
LWDWW
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.57
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.54 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 54.6% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Fagiano Okayama will face Avispa Fukuoka in the J1 League at City Light Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Fagiano Okayama has a 43% probability of winning this match. Avispa Fukuoka has a 32.4% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24.7%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Avispa Fukuoka have won 3 of their last 5 games
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Fagiano Okayama43%2.31
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.554.6%1.54
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes50.9%2.00
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.67
17.7%
1-0
5.84
17.2%
0-0
6.83
14.7%
0-1
7.08
14.2%
2-1
8.92
11.3%
2-0
9.53
10.6%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.31 | Draw 3.10 | Away 3.10 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.40 | Under 1.54 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.45 | Under 2.59 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 4.64 | Under 1.16 | |
| BTTS | Yes 2.00 | No 1.72 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.33 | 12 1.33 | X2 1.58 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals86.8%
Over 1.5 Goals64.2%
Over 2.5 Goals45.4%
Over 3.5 Goals20.1%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashima | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 32 | WWWLW |
| 1 |  Vissel Kobe | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 25 | WWWWL |
| 2 |  Nagoya Grampus | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 21 | WWLWL |
| 2 |  FC Tokyo | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 26 | WWLWL |
| 3 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 19 | WWWLL |
| 3 |  Machida Zelvia | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 8 | Fagiano Okayama | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 15 | WLLLL |
| 9 | Avispa Fukuoka | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 15 | LWLWW |
| 9 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 11 | LLLWW |
| 10 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 12 | LLLWL |
| 10 |  JEF United Chiba | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 9 | LLLWL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonFagiano OkayamaAvispa Fukuoka
1.06Goals p.g.1.44
1.53Goals conceded p.g.1.72
12%Clean sheets11%
24%Win rate28%
2.59Avg goals in match3.17
Recent Results
Fagiano OkayamaLAST MATCHES
25 AprFagiano Okayama2–0Avispa FukuokaJ1 League
19 AprGamba Osaka2–2Fagiano OkayamaJ1 League
11 AprKyoto Sanga5–1Fagiano OkayamaJ1 League
05 AprFagiano Okayama1–4Vissel KobeJ1 League
21 MarFagiano Okayama0–1V-varen NagasakiJ1 League
18 MarCerezo Osaka1–2Fagiano OkayamaJ1 League
4Win24%
6Draw35%
7Lost41%
LAST MATCHESAvispa Fukuoka
25 AprFagiano Okayama2–0Avispa FukuokaJ1 League
22 AprGamba Osaka1–2Avispa FukuokaJ1 League
19 AprNagoya Grampus2–2Avispa FukuokaJ1 League
11 AprAvispa Fukuoka1–0V-varen NagasakiJ1 League
05 AprSanfrecce Hiroshima0–1Avispa FukuokaJ1 League
21 MarAvispa Fukuoka2–2Gamba OsakaJ1 League
5Win28%
6Draw33%
6Lost33%
Lineups
ConfirmedFagiano Okayama3-4-2-1Confirmed
6Hiroshi OmoriDEF
18Daichi TagamiDEF
48Yugo TatsutaDEF
27Takaya KimuraFWD
98Werik PopóFWD
8Ataru EsakaFWD
1Lennart MoserGK
88Towa YamaneMID
5Kosei OguraMID
41Eiji MiyamotoMID
51Kosuke ShiraiMID
Substitutes
26Haruka MotoyamaDEF
43Yoshitake SuzukiDEF
40Kota KawanoFWD
99LucãoFWD
9Léo GaúchoFWD
52Taro HamadaGK
66Jun NishikawaMID
45Noah Kenshin BrowneMID
28Masaya MatsumotoMID
Avispa Fukuoka3-4-2-1Confirmed
15Yuma TsujiokaDEF
16Teppei OkaDEF
37Masaya TashiroDEF
7Shosei UsuiFWD
22Kazuki FujimotoFWD
14Shintaro NagoFWD
41Kazuki FujitaGK
33Kaoru YamawakiMID
34Keiya ShiihashiMID
6Masato ShigemiMID
29Yota MaejimaMID
Substitutes
47Yu HashimotoDEF
45Daiki MiyaDEF
5Takumi KamijimaDEF
27Yutaka MichiwakiFWD
32Hanan SaniburaunFWD
99Powell Obinna ObiGK
25Yuji KitajimaMID
8Kohei OkunoMID
11Tomoya MikiMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersFagiano Okayama
No reported absences
Avispa Fukuoka
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Fagiano Okayama Win2.31 (43%)
Avispa Fukuoka Win3.10 (32.4%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.40 (45.4%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.54 (54.6%)
Both Teams Score2.00 (50.9%)
BTTS No1.72 (49.1%)
Speculative
Draw3.10 (24.7%)
