Dunfermline vs Arbroath
Dunfermline
WDWLD
1 - 0
East End Park, Dunfermline
Arbroath
LDDWL
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.82
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.79 (implied 55.8%) for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 59.4% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.68. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Dunfermline will face Arbroath in the Premiership at East End Park.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Dunfermline has a 47.6% probability of winning this match. Arbroath has a 27.4% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 25%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Dunfermline have kept clean sheets in 55% of their matches
- Arbroath have kept clean sheets in 45% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Dunfermline47.6%2.26
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.559.4%1.79
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No53.5%1.99
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.81
17.3%
1-0
7.33
13.7%
2-1
8.44
11.9%
0-0
8.75
11.5%
0-1
8.96
11.3%
1-2
10.16
10%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.26 | Draw 3.19 | Away 3.07 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.96 | Under 1.79 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.30 | Under 3.26 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.34 | Under 1.28 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.72 | No 1.99 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.34 | 12 1.31 | X2 1.58 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89.1%
Over 1.5 Goals71.5%
Over 2.5 Goals40.6%
Over 3.5 Goals27.8%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dundee Utd | 35 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 43 | LWWLW |
| 1 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 35 | 23 | 7 | 5 | 62 | 30 | 32 | 76 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Celtic | 35 | 23 | 4 | 8 | 64 | 37 | 27 | 73 | WWWWL |
| 2 |  Aberdeen | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 36 | 50 | -14 | 37 | DWWLL |
| 3 |  Rangers | 35 | 19 | 12 | 4 | 69 | 36 | 33 | 69 | LLWWW |
| 3 |  Dundee | 35 | 9 | 9 | 17 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 36 | WLDLL |
| 5 |  ST Mirren | 35 | 7 | 9 | 19 | 27 | 51 | -24 | 30 | LLLWW |
| 6 |  Livingston | 35 | 2 | 14 | 19 | 39 | 68 | -29 | 20 | DWLDL |
| 6 |  Falkirk | 35 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 47 | 51 | -4 | 49 | WLLWL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonDunfermlineArbroath
1.45Goals p.g.0.64
0.82Goals conceded p.g.0.91
55%Clean sheets45%
45%Win rate18%
2.27Avg goals in match1.55
Recent Results
DunfermlineLAST MATCHES
05 MayDunfermline1–0ArbroathPremiership
01 MayDunfermline0–0ArbroathChampionship
25 AprQueen's Park0–2DunfermlineChampionship
21 AprDunfermline0–2ST JohnstoneChampionship
18 AprDunfermline0–0FalkirkFA Cup
14 AprAirdrie United2–2DunfermlineChampionship
5Win45%
4Draw36%
2Lost18%
LAST MATCHESArbroath
05 MayDunfermline1–0ArbroathPremiership
01 MayDunfermline0–0ArbroathChampionship
25 AprArbroath0–0PartickChampionship
18 AprArbroath2–1Raith RoversChampionship
11 AprAyr Utd1–0ArbroathChampionship
04 AprArbroath2–4ST JohnstoneChampionship
2Win18%
5Draw45%
4Lost36%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersDunfermline
No reported absences
Arbroath
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.79 (59.4%)
Value Bets
Dunfermline Win2.26 (47.6%)
Draw3.19 (25%)
Arbroath Win3.07 (27.4%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.96 (40.6%)
Both Teams Score1.72 (46.5%)
BTTS No1.99 (53.5%)
