CF Pachuca vs Toluca
CF Pachuca
#4 · Liga MX
WLLWW
VS
Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto
Toluca
#5 · Liga MX
LLWLL
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.53
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.51 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 58.9% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , CF Pachuca will face Toluca in the Liga MX at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that CF Pachuca has a 39.3% probability of winning this match. Toluca has a 38.4% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.3%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- CF Pachuca have won 3 of their last 5 games
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — CF Pachuca39.3%3.16
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.555.7%1.60
Both Teams to Score
Yes58.9%1.51
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 10 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.83
14.7%
1-2
8.21
12.2%
0-1
9.71
10.4%
2-1
10.11
10%
2-2
10.72
9.4%
0-2
11.22
9%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 3.16 | Draw 3.58 | Away 2.05 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.60 | Under 2.27 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.17 | Under 4.57 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.46 | Under 1.49 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.51 | No 2.40 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.69 | 12 1.27 | X2 1.33 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals92.4%
Over 1.5 Goals79.6%
Over 2.5 Goals55.7%
Over 3.5 Goals37.8%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 36 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 36 | LDDWL |
| 3 |  Cruz Azul | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 31 | 18 | 13 | 33 | WWDDD |
| 4 | CF Pachuca | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 31 | WLLWW |
| 5 | Toluca | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 28 | 16 | 12 | 30 | LWLLD |
| 6 |  Atlas | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 26 | LWDWD |
| 16 |  Mazatlán | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 22 | 37 | -15 | 15 | LWDLL |
| 17 |  Puebla | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 13 | LLLLD |
| 18 |  Santos Laguna | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 20 | 38 | -18 | 12 | WLLLD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonCF PachucaToluca
1.44Goals p.g.1.86
1.06Goals conceded p.g.1.09
22%Clean sheets32%
56%Win rate45%
2.5Avg goals in match2.95
Recent Results
CF PachucaLAST MATCHES
04 MayToluca0–1CF PachucaLiga MX
25 AprCF Pachuca0–2U.N.A.M. - PumasLiga MX
23 AprClub Tijuana3–1CF PachucaLiga MX
19 AprMonterrey1–3CF PachucaLiga MX
12 AprCF Pachuca4–2Santos LagunaLiga MX
05 AprCruz Azul1–2CF PachucaLiga MX
10Win56%
4Draw22%
4Lost22%
LAST MATCHESToluca
04 MayToluca0–1CF PachucaLiga MX
30 AprLos Angeles FC2–1TolucaCONCACAF Champions League
26 AprToluca4–1LeonLiga MX
23 AprMazatlán4–3TolucaLiga MX
19 AprClub America2–1TolucaLiga MX
16 AprLos Angeles Galaxy0–3TolucaCONCACAF Champions League
10Win45%
6Draw27%
6Lost27%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersCF Pachuca
No reported absences
Toluca
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.60 (55.7%)
Both Teams Score1.51 (58.9%)
Value Bets
CF Pachuca Win3.16 (39.3%)
Toluca Win2.05 (38.4%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.27 (44.3%)
BTTS No2.40 (41.1%)
Speculative
Draw3.58 (22.3%)
