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Barcelona vs Real Madrid

La LigaRegular Season - 35
Barcelona
#1 · La Liga
WWWWW
VS
Camp Nou, Barcelona
Real Madrid
#2 · La Liga
WDWLD
53.3%
Home Win
20.1%
Draw
26.5%
Away Win
★ OUR PICK
Barcelona to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Real Madrid make Barcelona the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.88
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.80 for Barcelona to Win. Our model calculates a 53.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Barcelona will face Real Madrid in the La Liga at Camp Nou.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Barcelona has a 53.3% probability of winning this match. Real Madrid has a 26.5% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20.1%.

Key factors in this prediction:

  • Barcelona are in outstanding form with 5 wins from their last 5 matches
  • Barcelona average 2.4 goals per game
  • With a combined average of 4.3 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture

Match Preview

AI

Predictions

Closely matched
Match Result
1 — Barcelona53.3%1.80
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.569.7%1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes69.5%1.28
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes
2-1
9.11
11%
1-1
9.67
10.4%
2-2
9.94
10.1%
3-1
11.42
8.8%
3-2
13.04
7.7%
1-2
13.11
7.7%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds
MarketOption 1Option 2Option 3
1X2Home 1.80Draw 4.12Away 3.75
O/U 2.5Over 1.26Under 3.56
O/U 1.5Over 1.06Under 7.97
O/U 3.5Over 1.69Under 2.17
BTTSYes 1.28No 3.45
Double Chance1X 1.2612 1.21X2 1.98

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
96%
Over 1.5 Goals
88.2%
Over 2.5 Goals
69.7%
Over 3.5 Goals
56.2%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

La Liga Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Barcelona
34291489315888
WWWWW
2
Real Madrid
34245570313977
WDWDL
3
Villarreal
34215864392568
WWDWL
4
Atletico Madrid
34196958372163
WWLLL
5
Real Betis
341314752411153
WDWDD
6
Celta Vigo
341211114844447
WLLLW
18
Alaves
3499164053-1336
LWLDD
19
Levante
3489173855-1733
LDWWL
20
Oviedo
34610182654-2828
LLDWW

Key Statistics

2025 Season
BarcelonaReal Madrid
2.35Goals p.g.1.95
1Goals conceded p.g.1.24
35%Clean sheets24%
80%Win rate62%
3.35Avg goals in match3.19

Recent Results

BarcelonaLAST MATCHES
02 MayOsasuna1–2BarcelonaLa Liga
25 AprGetafe0–2BarcelonaLa Liga
22 AprBarcelona1–0Celta VigoLa Liga
14 AprAtletico Madrid1–2BarcelonaUEFA Champions League
11 AprBarcelona4–1EspanyolLa Liga
08 AprBarcelona0–2Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
16Win80%
1Draw5%
3Lost15%
LAST MATCHESReal Madrid
03 MayEspanyol0–2Real MadridLa Liga
24 AprReal Betis1–1Real MadridLa Liga
21 AprReal Madrid2–1AlavesLa Liga
15 AprBayern München4–3Real MadridUEFA Champions League
10 AprReal Madrid1–1GironaLa Liga
07 AprReal Madrid1–2Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League
13Win62%
2Draw10%
6Lost29%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Barcelona

No reported absences

Real Madrid

No reported absences

Betting Strategy

●High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.26 (69.7%)
Both Teams Score1.28 (69.5%)
●Value Bets
Barcelona Win1.80 (53.3%)
Real Madrid Win3.75 (26.5%)
Under 2.5 Goals3.56 (30.3%)
BTTS No3.45 (30.5%)
●Speculative
Draw4.12 (20.1%)
Barcelona vs Real Madrid Predictions, Stats, H2H - 10 May 2026 | SureTipsPro